Soybeans–
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report was released this morning from the USDA. Soybeans stocks came in at 316 mb, compared to the trade estimate at 323 mb. Last year’s September Grain Stocks report had soybean stocks at 342 mb. On September 12, old crop ending stocks were estimated at 330 mb. Soybeans were the second biggest mover on the selloff in the grains today, down nearly 10 cents. Soybean conditions are now 62% good/excellent, down 1 point from a week ago. Last year at this time soybean conditions were 64% good/excellent. Harvest for soybeans is 19% complete. The 5-year average for harvest pace at this point in the year is 20%. We are entering the final months of the year, which would typically be the export window that China makes big purchases. It remains to be seen how demand will be this year and if other countries can step up. More downside may be ahead in soybeans.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1001 (-8), high of 1009, low of 1000. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1020 (-9), high of 1028, low of 1019. Cash price is at 968 (-4)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 265.7 (-2.4) high of 267.8, low of 264.4
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 48.87 (-0.24) high of 49.11, low of 48.70
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.09% Meal – 47.91% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1009) 5-day, (1026) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1029) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1028) 5-day, (1045) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (268.6) 5-day, (279.1) 20-day, (280.5) 50-day, (286.8) 100-day, (299.1) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (49.32) 5-day, (50.47) 20-day, (52.44) 50-day, (51.91) 100-day, (48.34) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 415 (-6), high of 421, low of 414. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 432 (-6). Cash price is 418 (-0.50)
Corn stocks came in at 1.532 bb on the Grain Stocks report, compared to the trade estimate at 1.337 bb. On the September WASDE report, earlier in the month, ending stocks were estimated at 1.325 bb. Last year, the September Grain Stocks report had corn stocks at 1.763 bb. Corn traded as low as 413 after the report but came back slightly over the rest of the day. Corn conditions sit unchanged at 66% good/excellent, compared to 64% this time last year. Harvest is at 18% complete, close to the 5-year average at 19%. The 6-10 day forecast shows elevated chance for rain in the western corn belt, which may delay harvest.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (421) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (424) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (438) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (441) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 508 (-11), with a high of 519, low of 506. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 527 (-10). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 467 (+2). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 497 (-10).
On this morning’s report, wheat stocks were 2.120 bb, compared to the average analyst estimate at 2.043 bb. On last year’s September Grain Stocks report, wheat stocks came in at 1.992 bb. There was also a Small Grains Summary released this morning from the USDA. All wheat production was estimated at 1.925 bb versus the trade estimate at 1.9275 bb. The USDA estimated wheat production at 1.927 bb in August. Wheat had the most negative reaction to the USDA reports this morning, trading 12 cents lower. This is not surprising, considering wheat has traded a larger range than the other grains as of late. More downside could be ahead, with Russia, the EU, Australia, Poland, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine all competing with the US on exports over the next few months.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (518) 5-day, (521) 20-day, (530) 50-day, (551) 100-day, (577) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (537) 5-day, (539) 20-day, (548) 50-day, (569) 100-day, (595) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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