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Soybeans–
The grains traded higher for the second day in a row. Hopefully this is the start of a strong rally. A close over 1061 in the November contract would be extremely bullish and pave the way towards a new 6-month high at 1075. There is still reason to be cautious because many traders were very likely choosing to go risk off into the holiday. President Trump will be speaking in Iowa tonight. Rumors are circulating that Trump will release more trade deals news, comment on the Big Beautiful Bill, or release something new for the farmers awaiting his visit to Des Moines. On the way from the airport in Iowa, Trump will be greeted by billboards attacking his tariff policy. Soybean oil had a tight trading range lately. Demand is still very strong and it should continue to rally in the months ahead.
Overnight there were 512 soybean meal deliveries and 18 soybean oil deliveries.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1055 (+2), high of 1064, low of 1050. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1049 (+1). Cash price is at 1033 (+23)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 277.4 (+0.6) high of 281.3, low of 276.2
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 54.55 (-0.47) high of 55.20, low of 54.40
The July Meal to Oil ratio (50.42% Meal – 49.58% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1040) 5-day, (1050) 20-day, (1049) 50-day, (1042) 100-day, (1044) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1035) 5-day, (1039) 20-day, (1036) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (275.9) 5-day, (287.5) 20-day, (294.1) 50-day, (300.8) 100-day, (309.4) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (53.67) 5-day, (51.76) 20-day, (50.17) 50-day, (47.77) 100-day, (45.78) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -35,717 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 23,448 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 25,042 contracts bringing their net short position to -146,800 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 32,861 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed meal Managed Money traders sold -2,999 contracts, moving to a net short position of -110,080 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 3,907 contracts bringing their net short position to -38,728. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 73,920 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed Managed Money traders were net long 44,319 contracts after selling -1,824 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 68,760 contracts.
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CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 420 (+2), high of 426, low of 417. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 437 (+3). Cash price is 446 (+12)
Corn traded higher again today, for the second straight day, heading into the long weekend. There are rumors that Trump will announce a Chinese Ag purchase package which could include corn. The weather forecast for the next 2 weeks remains clear of any weather problem, overall. Overnight there were 73 deliveries of corn.
Ethanol for the week ending June 27th averaged 1.076 mb. Thia week’s figure was down half a percent from the week prior and up just above a percent from last year. The 5-year average for this time of year is 1.025 mb per day. Ethanol productions for the week came in at 7.532 mb. Ethanol stocks were 24.117 mb, making a new record for this week of the year.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (413) 5-day, (419) 20-day, (427) 50-day, (440) 100-day, (441) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (429) 5-day, (435) 20-day, (441) 50-day, (449) 100-day, (447) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed that corn Managed Money bought 2,506 contracts bringing their net position to -182,282 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,113 contracts bringing their net position to -61,180. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -183,120 contracts.
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WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 5556 (-7), with a high of 568, low of 556. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 578 (-5). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 543 (+15). July KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 536 (-6).
Wheat also has a chance to benefit from an Ag trade package if Trump decides to announce something at the Iowa Independence Day celebration. The Vietnam trade deal could include some wheat purchases as well. Looking at the basis in Kansas, it appears that the HRW harvest has yields in line with expectations. There is some rain in the forecast for the next week in the Plains, but it shouldn’t have to harsh of an effect on those finishing up harvest. In order to break the June high, wheat prices need still need to rise in Russia and the EU.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (549) 5-day, (556) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (570) 100-day, (586) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (570) 5-day, (578) 20-day, (573) 50-day, (592) 100-day, (605) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -64,667 contracts, having decreased their short position by 16,686 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -12,361 contracts to bring their net long position to 14,209 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -75,195 contracts.
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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
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