Soybeans–
Soybeans had a major sell-off today after President Trump’s comment on social media. Trump said that China is sending letters to countries around the world saying that want to control their rare earth metals through tariffs. This update comes after talks were said to be going well. Trump and Xi were supposed to meet at the APEC Summit in November but that will no longer happen. Trump says he plans to retaliate by increasing tariffs on China. It looks like China will not be buying any US soybeans anytime soon. The government shutdown is preventing any type of export reports from being released, which makes it harder to see what kind of effect this will have, especially as the shutdown persists.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1006 (-15), high of 1024, low of 1002. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1023 (-15), high of 1040, low of 1018. Cash price is at 981 (-4)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 275 (-1.9) high of 277.9, low of 274.3
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 49.97 (-0.97) high of 51.24, low of 49.68
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.40% Meal – 47.60% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1019) 5-day, (1021) 20-day, (1026) 50-day, (1027) 100-day, (1029) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1036) 5-day, (1039) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1044) 100-day, (1042) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (276.8) 5-day, (278.6) 20-day, (284.7) 50-day, (289.5) 100-day, (302.0) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.76) 5-day, (50.64) 20-day, (51.90) 50-day, (52.20) 100-day, (48.85) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 413 (-5), high of 419, low of 412. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 429 (-5). Cash price is 398 (-3)
Corn traded lower with soybeans on the China news. While this has less of an effect on corn, a huge crop is expected and any further disruptions to exports are not needed. The next WASDE report will be on November 10 if the government can reopen before then. Argentina’s corn is off to a good start, with planting at 25.6% complete, compared to 19% last year. Argentina should have a bigger crop as plantings are up 700k ha from last year. Disappointingly, most weather forecasters are expecting a weak La Nina this year in Argentina. Harvest weather is expected to remain largely favorable for harvest. There are elevated chances of rain for the western Corn Belt, while the eastern part of the corn belt is expected to remain dry.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (419) 5-day, (421) 20-day, (415) 50-day, (423) 100-day, (438) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (435) 5-day, (438) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (439) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 498 (-8), with a high of 509, low of 496. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 515 (-8). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 475 (-0.75). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 483 (-6).
Wheat traded lower with corn and soybeans to end the week. Wheat was also 2 cents lower in the overnight session. SovEcon raised its production estimate for Russia’s production to 87.8 mt, from 87.2 mt previously. French SRW wheat harvest is estimated at 5% planted versus 8% a year ago. The dollar has been stronger as wheat continues to slip. A higher dollar doesn’t help exports. Wheat finally traded below the 500 resistance level. Previously this was a tough resistance level to break. More downside is likely ahead for wheat.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (506) 5-day, (516) 20-day, (523) 50-day, (547) 100-day, (573) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (523) 5-day, (534) 20-day, (541) 50-day, (565) 100-day, (591) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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