Soybeans–
Soybeans traded even lower, after trading 4 1/4 cents lower in the overnight session. Today’s move lower was due to news that China’s Xi may not even attend the APEC Summit. The assumption was that President Trump would meet with Xi in early November. This could be just some type of negotiating tactic from the Chinese; however, the market did not have a friendly reaction to the news. China has been buying its soybeans from Brazil. Brazil has benefited off Trump’s trade war, with exports expected to hit a record 102.2 mt. Brazil has been dry, but if the rains in the forecast for next week don’t materialize there could be a problem.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1022 (-7), high of 1030, low of 1020. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1038 (-5), high of 1044, low of 1037. Cash price is at 985 (+7)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 276.9 (-1.1) high of 278.9, low of 276.2
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.94 (-0.54) high of 51.60, low of 50.79
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.92% Meal – 8.08% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1021) 5-day, (1023) 20-day, (1025) 50-day, (1028) 100-day, (1028) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1038) 5-day, (1041) 20-day, (1045) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1042) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (277.5) 5-day, (279.3) 20-day, (284.7) 50-day, (289.8) 100-day, (302.2) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.78) 5-day, (50.75) 20-day, (51.99) 50-day, (52.20) 100-day, (48.80) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 418 (-3), high of 423, low of 418. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 434 (-3). Cash price is 402 (+2)
Corn also reacted negatively to the report that Xi may not attend the APEC Summit. Corn was 2 cents higher at one point and faded the rest of the day closing lower. China’s production estimate was recently lowered by LSEG to 298.2 mt, down 1%. China’s corn imports for the month are estimated at 6 mt, compared to 7 mt last month. Yesterday’s close higher had an increase in open interest 16,000, which suggests some new long positions. Weather is expected to remain favorable for harvest, with light rain in the forecast for the Midwest.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (420) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (415) 50-day, (423) 100-day, (438) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (436) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (439) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 506 (+0.75), with a high of 513, low of 506. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 524 (-1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 476 (+0.50). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 489 (-3).
Wheat was the only grain that closed higher today. Wheat also traded 3 1/4 cents higher in the overnight session. The Russian wheat crop could be getting smaller with SovEcon noting possible crop losses due to snowfall in Siberia. Russia still has 2 mt left to complete harvest. The war in Ukraine is showing no signs of slowing down. The US has been considering sending more advanced weapons to Ukraine, including Tomahawk missiles. There is some discussion that Ukraine will use these new weapons to strike targets deeper inside Russia. In South America, Argentia saw an increased crop estimate at 23 mt, compared to 20 mt in September.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (509) 5-day, (517) 20-day, (523) 50-day, (547) 100-day, (574) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (527) 5-day, (535) 20-day, (541) 50-day, (566) 100-day, (592) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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