Soybeans–
Soybeans saw big move lower today because a federal appeals court ruled that most of Trump’s tariffs are illegal. Trump said that he would appeal this decision. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs will be something to watch going forward. Tariffs can stay in place until October 14, after that the federal court decision kicks in. There has been no update on China trade talks yet. On Friday, China’s auction of reserve soybeans sold 67,762 of the 104,250 tons offered. After reducing their net short on last week’s COT, managed money traders are now long 21,000 contracts.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1025 (-11), high of 1035, low of 1019. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1041 (-13), high of 1053, low of 1036. Cash price is at 1027 (+7)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 275.5 (-8.1) high of 284.1, low of 274.3
September Bean Oil (ZLU25) settled at 51.97 (+0.50) high of 52.06, low of 51.25
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.46% Meal – 48.54% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1029) 5-day, (1011) 20-day, (1007) 50-day, (1018) 100-day, (1019) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1048) 5-day, (1031) 20-day, (1023) 50-day, (1029) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (283.9) 5-day, (284.8) 20-day, (281.2) 50-day, (291.5) 100-day, (301.8) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (52.33) 5-day, (52.90) 20-day, (53.77) 50-day, (51.42) 100-day, (47.60) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 35,273 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 3 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -28,135 contracts bringing their net short position to -114,151 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -4,791 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,070 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,239 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -11,089 contracts bringing their net short position to -60,857. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -40,571 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 31,342 contracts after selling -13,070 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 50,491 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 403 (+5), high of 403, low of 393. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 423 (+2). Cash price is 409 (+12)
The holiday weekend saw solid rains for parts of the South and the Plains. The eastern corn belt could see minor rainfall in the 6–10 day forecast, but drier weather is expected to emerge again in the longer-term forecast. Weather services have reported the chance for light frost in the northern Midwest; however, it may be too early for that to be a real concern. Friday’s CPT showed managed money reducing their net short by 34,000 contracts. The dollar was weaker this morning on tariff news.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (391) 5-day, (384) 20-day, (394) 50-day, (415) 100-day, (431) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (413) 5-day, (406) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (431) 100-day, (440) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 31,464 contracts bringing their net position to -144,650 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -25,041 contracts bringing their net position to -57,745. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -163,744 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 513 (-5), with a high of 513, low of 508. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 528 (-6). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 484 (+6). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 483 (-9).
Wheat traded 8 1/4 cents lower in the overnight and was lower again during today’s session. Wheat prices abroad are starting to head lower. Russian wheat is $5 lower than last week, while EU wheat is approaching contract lows. Lower prices will not help US exports. I mentioned last week big crops are on the way outside the US, Australia raised its crop estimate to the fourth largest on record. One bullish point to consider is the risk of frost in the Pampas region of Argentina. The COT report showed the funds reduced their net short by 16,500 contracts.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (510) 5-day, (508) 20-day, (528) 50-day, (542) 100-day, (564) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (529) 5-day, (529) 20-day, (549) 50-day, (563) 100-day, (585) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -98,132 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,837 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,615 contracts to bring their net long position to 25,061 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -163,744 contracts.
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