Commentary: The soy found support today with some global support. The USDA will release the supply and demand Thursday. The expectation is for a slight reduction in soy stocks. If realized this could be a bit supportive in the near term. The carry around 400 at present would be deemed manageable. If this transpires the beans could witness a rally …
Soy Update
Commentary: The soybeans are essentially range bound midway in a 60 cent range. The overall demand picture has weighed this week on beans as well as most markets in the AG. The USDA will release supply and demand estimates next week. The question is how much will they reduce exports due to corona, if at all. Looking forward at some …
Soy Update
Commentary: The soy traded both sides today due to outside influence. The soy in the near term will look at the SA production estimates. The Brazilian estimates are coming down. This will open a window for the US to make sales to China. It is possible that the Chinese start to restock and US purchases should be on the buying …
Soy Update
Commentary: The soybeans witnessed a lower trade today. The market is under pressure for a couple reasons. The overall demand remains weak for exports. This is due to the Brazilian exports of approx 13 mmt during March, a record. The main destination is China. The USDA numbers yesterday showed a larger carry than anticipated. This could prove important, and could …
Soy Update
Commentary: The USDA released the stocks and acreage estimates today for March. The soy stocks came in at 2.253 billion. This was larger than anticipated. The acreage came in at 83.5 mil acres. This was smaller than anticipated by approx 1 million acres, but still up from 19 by 7.4 million acres. As mentioned over the last couple of days, …
Soy Commentary
Commentary: The soy has been led higher by the old crop. Both beans and meal have been the leaders while the oil share has lost approx 6% in the past weeks. The catalyst for the strength has been concern over the recent weather in South America that has caused reductions in crop size. In addition, for meal, concerns due to …
AG TIME – Do we Have Separation?
The soy complex under pressure. The rhetoric will have us believe it is due to the tariff situation. Perhaps. However, there is much to consider. The global soy production is going up. The demand is waning. The title do we have separation refers to the bean corn relationship. Perhaps a sea change. It is my belief the global shift has …
AG TIME – Much to Think About
There are many currents running now. The trade wars have given the market much to consider. It is my belief the whole thing will be solved before anything becomes active regarding the US Chinese threats. However, it is my belief the US will have won the concessions it requests. In the mean time, the Chinese economy is showing signs of …
AG TIME – What’s Next?
The beans continued the rally. The EU announcement is viewed as positive. The weather may offer some dry areas. Also, there is some speculation that perhaps the Chinese will be forced to settle. Ultimately I believe that is the case, however, it may take a bit of pain first. In the meantime, it is my contention that there are some …
AG TIME – And Now We Wait
The Soy markets are biding time now. The beans have bounced a bit. This could continue with a further reduction in ratings. The bean ratings, like corn, are in a high end of the condition ratings from a historic perspective. My personal upside potential without a real problem is 865-880 basis Aug. For the record that should push Nov 19 …