There exists a significant relationship between feed and the animal. This is no great revelation. At present, the Chinese produce and consume the largest hog herd in the world. Approx 500 million pigs annual. There is much concern about the recent outbreak of African flu. It is my belief this may be just getting started. The Chinese lack the oversight …
AG TIME may the farce be with you
I am finding some perplexing aspects to the market. This is not necessarily anything new or different. Just a verbalization. It appears there are those that still would like to attempt to find something bullish in the soy complex. In my opinion, without a major global disruption from a weather problem, or some unseen act of God event, the bean …
AG TIME – Many Moving Parts
There are many moving parts in the volatile landscape. The beans are certainly burdened with a record carryover. The Chinese will be sending a delegation to work things out with the US. The South American planting will soon be underway. Some thoughts. It is my belief now, and for some time, that China cannot afford a trade war with the …
AG TIME – Is It Time?
The Beans and Meal are continuing their recovery. Today the Chinese and the US said they would open dialogue regarding the trade dispute. This was viewed as a positive. It is my belief that the recent highs in beans will hold. The Nov 2018 high is 920, the Nov 19 high is 950. The weather is near ideal to finish …
AG TIME – The Numbers Speak for Themselves
The Beans rebounded today. Actually unbelievable in my opinion. Now the carry is 750 million plus. The global numbers are 105 mmt plus. All thoughts we have spoken about. The Chinese demand is changing. These are long term shifts. The beans are important, but China will buy alternative proteins – that is already underway. The global protein is on the …
AG TIME – Awaiting the Report Friday
The beans were up led by meal. The talk du jour was the Chinese prices are higher over concern about a lack of supply. A couple perceptions that I am working through. The Chinese bean imports in July are less than anticipated. Fact, they are trailing last year this time by 2mmt. Demand gone is gone forever. It goes to …
AG TIME – Do we Have Separation?
The soy complex under pressure. The rhetoric will have us believe it is due to the tariff situation. Perhaps. However, there is much to consider. The global soy production is going up. The demand is waning. The title do we have separation refers to the bean corn relationship. Perhaps a sea change. It is my belief the global shift has …
AG TIME – Much to Think About
There are many currents running now. The trade wars have given the market much to consider. It is my belief the whole thing will be solved before anything becomes active regarding the US Chinese threats. However, it is my belief the US will have won the concessions it requests. In the mean time, the Chinese economy is showing signs of …
AG TIME – Focus on the Numbers
The markets are down in the soy. I am tired of talking about the rhetoric. It is my belief we need to focus on the numbers and that should over the long run have an impact on the price. Looking at the reality of the bean market, the USDA has estimated a 580 mil bu carryover (RECORD). The USDA will …
AG TIME – Is it Time?
The beans were up but did not follow through. The condition ratings were unchanged. I am noticing some structural things to be aware of. The meal, although higher, the bear spreads are working again. This may be important. Also the oil spreads are attempting to stabilize. It will be important to watch the Indian monsoons. It is my belief we …