The soy continues under pressure. The 6th is the deadline for China and the US. This whole scenario has shifted some scenarios into play. First the markets in my opinion are over supplied. Given the weather, the global carry, prices were due this break. Trump will play hard ball if China does not give on the trade imbalance. I really …
AG TIME – Good Things Coming
The beans traded both sides. Tomorrow is the USDA report. All the ex bulls now think the market can’t rebound due to the lack of dialogue with China. Perhaps they are correct. The market has broken a lot. I have expected that. I believe it may be the wrong time of year to press the short side. Don’t misunderstand – …
AG TIME
A two sided trade today in beans. The acreage is the next important aspect. The weather has been very ideal. Although it is important to note that the wet weather may be causing some concerns in some areas. This may be nothing in the long run. There is a suggestion of some heat coming in. This will be monitored closely. …
AG TIME – Bear on the Move
The soy was led lower by beans and meal today. After review of the USDA report yesterday. I must say that I was not bullish the bean numbers. To the contrary. I see some real potential mistakes. First, it is probable that the USDA has over stated the exports by 50-100 mil bu. I don’t buy the story the Chinese …
AG TIME
The soy was weak, yet again led by the meal market. The weather has been good on the surface with plenty of moisture received through key growing regions of the belt. We now are back at support in the beans at 950. The USDA will release a supply and demand tomorrow, then the acreage at the end of the month. …
AG TIME – Summer Market
The soy was down nominal again today. The bean exports are lagging. The Chinese are buying Brazilian. The real has moved into a position that makes it difficult to not sell into the export arena. All aspects are working against the beans at present. This trend should continue and can open the door for further declines. As I have stated, …
AG TIME – Fear and Reality
The soy traded both sides today. The oil share gained back a modest amount. There is much fear regarding all the trade tensions. It is my belief that ultimately that is noise. The reality of the market is that beans are off to a good start. It is probable that there could be an increase in acres. The Argentinian situation …
AG TIME – No fun for bulls or bears
The soy was all over the place today. Indecision, uncertainty, all create a difficult environment. The flow of continual information at times can be distracting. When I look at the charts, this has been very difficult, unless a short term view is used. Then it is still difficult. Enough of the complaints already. The market appears to be focused on …
AG TIME
There is much going on daily creating back and forth type trade. The soy broke off highs today because the Tariff concerns are still there. Talk of 25% being implemented IF the govt and china don’t work out their issues. There will be a point when the market needs to focus on the fundamentals. The medium term and long term …
AG TIME OBJECTS IN MOTION
The soy complex witnessed liquidation. More than this though, the markets are looking at the fundamentals. The Chinese purchases, the currency differences, etc, etc, and saying this price may be way too high. The market I want to watch now is meal. Short term sells are here. The question now with this crush pace? How does meal do. I believe …