The USDA released their report. The screams of bullishness. It is important to separate the beans from corn here, because I feel much differently about them. The USDA added to the global carry, now 92 mmt. Huge. The new crop is reduced to 87 mmt. I have some issues with this and really am questioning the reasoning behind this. The …
AG TIME – JUST MARKING TIME
The funds were buyers today on “turn around Tuesday.” The markets made an attempt to rebound after yesterday’s trouncing. A couple factors to watch. The dollar continues to exhibit strength. Considering the record tax intake to the Treasury, the economic outlook continues to impress. This should continue to fuel strength in the US dollar. This will impact the AG sector …
AG TIME MACRO CHANGES AHEAD ?
The beans and meal were under sincere pressure all session. The Chinese US trade conflict is cited as the reason. Perhaps it is the catalyst. However, it is my contention that there are other considerations afoot. The domestic carry has been growing, and will continue. The global supply is 20-25 mmt larger than 2 years ago. This is not bullish. …
AG TIME – lots of questions
The beans were lower early on concerns over China, a lack of purchases, and a large percentage of unshipped beans for old crop. At the end of the day nothing has changed but the price. Beans were able to mount a significant turn around and close 10 CENTS higher. There is hope the US delegation to China can come away …
AG TIME
The soy complex was weak today. The beans and meal both were under some pressure. There was a correction in the oilshare and this was the main catalyst. The bean oil stocks came in lower than anticipated. It is to early to say if the meal has put in a high. The technical picture does not indicate it has. The …
AG TIME
The story remains the same. The meal is leading the soy complex while the large crush pace pressures the bean oil. The oilshare continues to decline at 27.2%. In addition, the meal relative to beans is approaching historic highs. The question is what price either shuts down demand, although not really the issue in my opinion. Or offers other price …
AG TIME
There is not much to comment on with respect to today’s activity. The feature remains meal strength relative to the complex. I would venture to say that without meal strength beans would be under pressure. The funds remain very long. The concerns over the rosario port will be yet another reason to push meal higher. The weather in the Delta …
Ag – Where are we now?
The USDA gave us the report. Plenty of beans domestically. Now the debate, where is Argentina? Truly, it means little. The world has 26-28 mmt more than 2.5 years ago. It is ok to try to figure all this out. I would like to say, it is time to look at the other side of the coin. We are producing …
AG – BIG MONTH
SOY COMPLEX This may prove to be a big month for AG moves. Opportunity and Risk everywhere. The WASDE report this week will put the South American numbers in perspective. This is a key factor going forward. The market may well have dialed in a smaller ARG crop than we will see this week. If this is the case and …
March Ag Where do we go from here.
SOY COMPLEX Today was a fairly uneventful day when the dust settled. When we leave the month of March we will have a few answers to this puzzle. The USDA will release WASDE this Thursday and we will look at the USDA numbers. In play are the US carry and the production out of South America. The big question is …