The soy is experiencing a quiet day overall. The market is digesting the recent break and perhaps consolidating for a minute. The weather looks conducive to bringing home a very large soybean crop. The reality is that we have priced in a realistic price relative to the historic numbers. My contention is that the prices are supposed to move to …
Scale Down
In my view we’re enjoying a fantastic finish of the growing season for corn and beans and the National Weather Service is calling for slightly warmer and wetter than normal conditions in the Heartland in its 6 to 10 day forecast. The state by state condition reports usually receive less emphasis as crops near harvest in my opinion. The market …
AG TIME – Grains and Pork
There exists a significant relationship between feed and the animal. This is no great revelation. At present, the Chinese produce and consume the largest hog herd in the world. Approx 500 million pigs annual. There is much concern about the recent outbreak of African flu. It is my belief this may be just getting started. The Chinese lack the oversight …
AG TIME may the farce be with you
I am finding some perplexing aspects to the market. This is not necessarily anything new or different. Just a verbalization. It appears there are those that still would like to attempt to find something bullish in the soy complex. In my opinion, without a major global disruption from a weather problem, or some unseen act of God event, the bean …
AG TIME – Many Moving Parts
There are many moving parts in the volatile landscape. The beans are certainly burdened with a record carryover. The Chinese will be sending a delegation to work things out with the US. The South American planting will soon be underway. Some thoughts. It is my belief now, and for some time, that China cannot afford a trade war with the …
AG TIME – Is It Time?
The Beans and Meal are continuing their recovery. Today the Chinese and the US said they would open dialogue regarding the trade dispute. This was viewed as a positive. It is my belief that the recent highs in beans will hold. The Nov 2018 high is 920, the Nov 19 high is 950. The weather is near ideal to finish …
AG TIME – The Numbers Speak for Themselves
The Beans rebounded today. Actually unbelievable in my opinion. Now the carry is 750 million plus. The global numbers are 105 mmt plus. All thoughts we have spoken about. The Chinese demand is changing. These are long term shifts. The beans are important, but China will buy alternative proteins – that is already underway. The global protein is on the …
AG TIME – Is it Time?
The beans were up but did not follow through. The condition ratings were unchanged. I am noticing some structural things to be aware of. The meal, although higher, the bear spreads are working again. This may be important. Also the oil spreads are attempting to stabilize. It will be important to watch the Indian monsoons. It is my belief we …
AG TIME – What’s Next?
The beans continued the rally. The EU announcement is viewed as positive. The weather may offer some dry areas. Also, there is some speculation that perhaps the Chinese will be forced to settle. Ultimately I believe that is the case, however, it may take a bit of pain first. In the meantime, it is my contention that there are some …
AG TIME – And Now We Wait
The Soy markets are biding time now. The beans have bounced a bit. This could continue with a further reduction in ratings. The bean ratings, like corn, are in a high end of the condition ratings from a historic perspective. My personal upside potential without a real problem is 865-880 basis Aug. For the record that should push Nov 19 …