There are many moving parts in the volatile landscape. The beans are certainly burdened with a record carryover. The Chinese will be sending a delegation to work things out with the US. The South American planting will soon be underway. Some thoughts. It is my belief now, and for some time, that China cannot afford a trade war with the …
AG TIME – Is It Time?
The Beans and Meal are continuing their recovery. Today the Chinese and the US said they would open dialogue regarding the trade dispute. This was viewed as a positive. It is my belief that the recent highs in beans will hold. The Nov 2018 high is 920, the Nov 19 high is 950. The weather is near ideal to finish …
AG TIME – The Numbers Speak for Themselves
The Beans rebounded today. Actually unbelievable in my opinion. Now the carry is 750 million plus. The global numbers are 105 mmt plus. All thoughts we have spoken about. The Chinese demand is changing. These are long term shifts. The beans are important, but China will buy alternative proteins – that is already underway. The global protein is on the …
AG TIME – Is it Time?
The beans were up but did not follow through. The condition ratings were unchanged. I am noticing some structural things to be aware of. The meal, although higher, the bear spreads are working again. This may be important. Also the oil spreads are attempting to stabilize. It will be important to watch the Indian monsoons. It is my belief we …
AG TIME – What’s Next?
The beans continued the rally. The EU announcement is viewed as positive. The weather may offer some dry areas. Also, there is some speculation that perhaps the Chinese will be forced to settle. Ultimately I believe that is the case, however, it may take a bit of pain first. In the meantime, it is my contention that there are some …
AG TIME – And Now We Wait
The Soy markets are biding time now. The beans have bounced a bit. This could continue with a further reduction in ratings. The bean ratings, like corn, are in a high end of the condition ratings from a historic perspective. My personal upside potential without a real problem is 865-880 basis Aug. For the record that should push Nov 19 …
AG TIME – Macro changes
The soy under pressure led by meal. This may be the beginning of something. The meal has been the strongest part of the soy. This has driven oil share down to 30% and the crush margins near record price. The global landscape will shift from a tight meal market ( although I question this was ever the case), to a …
AG TIME – Who will blink?
The beans were under pressure yet again. The concern over the tariff situation continues. There are only 12 short hours till the implementation. Will someone blink. The psychology of this is the meaningful aspect. If the tariffs are put in place it will still be 2-3 months before they are finalized. It is still my belief that the actual implementation …
AG TIME – Do stocks to usage count any more?
The bean market down yet again. The weather remains fairly beneficial. The title here today is what I am attempting to figure out. It is my belief that the markets can act irrational for a period of time. It is also my belief that the markets ultimately are driven by the supply and demand. The stocks to usage ratio is …
AG TIME
The soy continues under pressure. The 6th is the deadline for China and the US. This whole scenario has shifted some scenarios into play. First the markets in my opinion are over supplied. Given the weather, the global carry, prices were due this break. Trump will play hard ball if China does not give on the trade imbalance. I really …