SUNDAY LATE DAY RADAR – dry over all of the ECB, WCB, DELTA, most of the Plains.
SATURDAY MAX TEMPS LINK – still chilly for early MAY with max temps in 50s and Low 60s over MI, OH, IND, ILL, KY, WI … low 70s over MN, IA, MO, western TN, ARK, LA, MS, AL, GA … 80s over ND, SD, NEB, KS, OK, TX, eastern MT, eastern WY, eastern COL.
MIN TEMPS SUN AM – 30s over WI, eastern IA, MI, north ILL, OH, MI, IND … 40s over KY, TN, MO, southern ILL, western ILL, MN, eastern ND, SD.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ENDING 0700 CDT – DRY all of Plains, WCB, Delta, most of the ECB … Moderate rains of 0.25-0.75″ 6-20mm 50% coverage over central KY.
1-5 D = all last week we talked about how the 6-10D for THIS coming week was wet from I-80 south with the BEST rain from I-70 SOUTH … the Sunday models have NOT changed — this IS going to be a wet week for the central Plains and the Midwest from I-80 south. These 2 images show GFS (LEFT) and 12z Euro (RIGHT) total rainfall next 5 days. They show widespread 0.50-1.75″/ 12-45mm over 80% of eastern COL, KS, MO, south half of ILL, 70% coverage over southern NEB, IND, all of KY.
The EURO has MORE rain into northern NEB, IA and north ILL than the GFS … 0.50-2.0″/12-50mm 50% coverage.
6-10 DAY = UNCERTAINTY HERE … Generally it is drier but NOT 100% dry in all areas. The 12Z Sunday GFS & Canadian Models (cmc) brings in 1-2″/25-50mm over 50-60% of NEB, KS, MO but the CMC model has some rain into ILL and IND. Also the 12Z Sunday GFS brings in 2-7″/50-175mm into central OK, but we think that area of 2-7″ rains over central OK is bogus. The EURO is very different — as it has mainly dry conditions over all of the ECB, Delta and most of the WCB. Lower Plains sees light rains 40% coverage 0.10-0.50″ 2-12mm while NEB, SD, ND, MN see 50% coverage 0.5-1.75″/ 12 -38mm. See images.
The 6-10d ensembles are generally drier than the operational or regular Models. I do see some rains moving back into central Plains DAY9-10.
11-15 DAY = STRONG SIGNAL from all models of a new large area of rain wet pattern … possibly excessively wet … covering NEB, SD, ND, eastern KS, eastern OK and all of the Midwest … 70%+ coverage 0.50-2.0″ 12-50mm. A Major trough on the West coast DAY 10 /24 hrs moves inland reaching the Plains MAY 19-20 … which is what causes the rains.
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