PM RADAR — CLICK HERE TO SEE FAST LOADING RADAR
The Sunday PM radar shows showers & storms over much of central & west central MN … some showers and storms over southern TN … southern MS & northeastern ARK. The coverage in both areas is about 40- 50%. There are some additional widely scattered storms over northeast TX and a few weak showers over far eastern IA & OK Panhandle. Significant storms have developed in the last few hours over southwestern TX.
SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
70s over ND, MN, WI, MI, OH, IND, ILL… and over central and eastern OK and southwest KS. 80s over KY, TN, ARK, MO, IA, eastern MT/WY/COL, SD, NEB, most of KS, the TX Panhandle. 90s over the rest of TX with some 100+ degree readings in far southern TX.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS — ending 0700 CDT 6 AUGUST
Rainfall in last 24 hours featured three distinct areas all of which fell across the Plains and none of which fell over the Midwest. The first area featured 0.5-4.0″/12-100mm with 70% coverage across central and southern ND and far northeast portions of SD into west central MN. The second area featured 0.5- 3.0″/ 12-75mm rains over central and north central NEB with 60-70% coverage. The third significant area of rain from 0.5-2.0″/ 12-50mm rains across 70% of central and Eastern OK… northeastern TX into north central TX. However, embedded in this area was a heavy thunderstorm over northeastern TX which dropped rainfall amounts up to 9-10″/ 225-250mm. These rains fell east of Dallas… NORTH of I- 20 over areas such as Sulfur Springs, Commerce and Mount Vernon, Texas.
1-5 DAY – The main issue is the significant rain which appears to be showing up on many of the models all the next five days for the eastern Plains and the WCB. We talked about this last week how the model trend was going to shift for this weekend and that appears to be the case.
The operational GFS Sunday afternoon is quite wet showing a large area of 1-4″/25-100mm rains over 75% of the eastern …central …and upper Plains and all of the WCB with lighter rains of 1-2″/25-50mm over the rest of the Midwest and Deep South. This is supported by the GFS ensemble and the Canadian model. The operational European model is somewhat drier over the WCB and it has large gaps in its rain areas BUT the European ensemble is also quite wet but – almost as wet as the Canadian and GFS ensemble.
WXRISK LIKES THE IDEA OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER 75% + OF 0.50-3.0″/12-75mm for the eastern third of SD, NEB, KS and the WCB. 1-2″/ 25-50mm into 60% of the ECB.
6-10 DAY – The regular GFS stays WET over 75% of IA, ILL, IND into western OH and over eastern NEB… 1-3″/25-75mm but this may be over done. The GFS ensemble has moderate rains over MN, WI, IA, MO of 0.50-1.25″/ 12-38mm and less rain over ILL, IND, OH, KY. The 12z Sunday EURO also has GOOD RAIN over western IA, eastern third of SD, western MN… and 1-4″/ 25-100 over the southeast US from GA to VA to MD. This is supported by Euro ensemble mean that keeps moderate rains over all of the WCB into MO & ARK.
WXRISK LIKES THE IDEA OF MODERATE RAINS OVER 60% OF THE WCB and EASTERN PLAINS… 0.50-1.5 / 12-75mm.
11-15 DAY – The GFS ensemble is “MOSTLY DRY ” over the WCB and over the ECB whereas the Euro and Canadian ensemble show more moderate rains over 75%+ of the WCB as well as eastern third of ND, SD, NEB, KS and northern MO.
WXRISK LIKES THE IDEA OF MODERATE RAINS OVER THE WCB and EASTERN PLAINS IN THE 11-15 DAY.
WEEK 3 CFS AUG 27 – SEPT 2 – above Normal rains over all of Plains and WCB.
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