Soybeans–
Soybeans saw profit taking today, which isn’t surprising as soybeans have been trading higher since mid-October. Soybean buying from China is expected to pick up in December or January. China is still making soybean purchases from Brazil, as Brazil has cheaper soybeans due to the recent rally. Managed money did heavy buying over the past 6 sessions, going long an estimated 75,000 contracts. Soybean meal was weaker for the second day in a row, after 2 weeks of higher prices. StoneX lowered its yield estimate for new crop soybeans to 53.6 bpa from 53.9 bpa in October. Production is estimated at 4.303 bb. Brazil’s production is estimated at 178.9 mmt. A pullback here may be bullish as it allows US soybeans to stay competitive on the export market.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1121 (-12), high of 1135, low of 1112. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1141 (-12, high of 1141, low of 1118. Cash price is at 1100 (+34)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 317.4 (-3.4) high of 321.3, low of 315.3
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 49.53 (-0.31) high of 50.10, low of 49.11
Meal to Oil ratio (56.925% Meal – 44.075% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1114) 5-day, (1063) 20-day, (1054) 50-day, (1048) 100-day, (1046) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1122) 5-day, (1075) 20-day, (1068) 50-day, (1062) 100-day, (1054) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (316.8) 5-day, (292.5) 20-day, (286.4) 50-day, (287.3) 100-day, (299.8) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (49.57) 5-day, (50.42) 20-day, (50.89) 50-day, (52.50) 100-day, (49.50) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 431 (-2), high of 434, low of 429. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 444 (-2). Cash price is 428 (-1)
Corn was lower today, after a 3 1/4 cent drop in the overnight session. StoneX has corn yield at 186 bpa, compared to the last estimate at 186 bpa. Production is estimated at 16.748 bb versus last month at 16.737 bb. Demand for US corn is very good and should continue to stay strong. Weather is expected to stay favorable for the next two weeks as harvest moves along. In the extended forecast the Midwest is expected to see slightly above normal temperatures. The November WASDE report on the 14th should be a quiet report. I think the USDA will keep its yield estimate close to unchanged and wait to make any major changes until the January report.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (432) 5-day, (423) 20-day, (421) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (436) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (442) 5-day, (438) 20-day, (437) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (451) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 550 (+6), with a high of 550, low of 539. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 562 (+9). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 541 (+20). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 536 (+4).
Wheat was higher again today, after a 3 cent gain in the overnight session. Yesterday’s volume on the breakout was the highest since mid-June. Fundamentals are still bearish, but technicals point toward higher wheat prices. China’s purchase was not significant but it could mean more purchases later on. Winter wheat planting is estimated at 90% complete, while conditions are estimated at 52% good/excellent. Winter wheat conditions are up 2% compared to last week. Last year at this time, winter wheat conditions were 41% good/excellent.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (536) 5-day, (514) 20-day, (518) 50-day, (537) 100-day, (567) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (551) 5-day, (530) 20-day, (535) 50-day, (554) 100-day, (585) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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