Soybeans–
Soybeans traded higher, after closing 2 1/2 cents higher in the overnight session. Harvest is estimated at 40% complete, versus 47% last year. With no Commitment of Traders reports due to the government shutdown here are the estimates from StoneX for today’s session: funds bought 6,000 soybean contracts, sold 2,000 soybean meal contracts, and bought 4,000 soybean oil contracts. The Mississippi River has low water levels which is causing barges to be loaded lighter. Export sales have been slower recently. Brazil’s exports for September were stronger than last year at 7.34 mt this year and 6.11 mt last year.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1022 (+4), high of 1025, low of 1016. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1039 (+3), high of 1042, low of 1033. Cash price is at 974 (-
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 276.9 (-0.25) high of 279.5, low of 276.0
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 51.04 (+0.66) high of 51.07, low of 50.26
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.04% Meal – 47.96% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1018) 5-day, (1023) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1028) 100-day, (1028) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1036) 5-day, (1042) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1042) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (277.1) 5-day, (280.2) 20-day, (284.6) 50-day, (290.3) 100-day, (302.5) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.47) 5-day, (50.76) 20-day, (52.20) 50-day, (52.17) 100-day, (48.69) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 419 (-2), high of 424, low of 419. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 436 (-2). Cash price is 402 (-6)
Corn traded 2 1/2 cents lower during today’s session, after closing unchanged overnight. StoneX estimates funds sold 3,000 corn contracts today. Brazil’s exports for September were stronger than last year at 7.56 mt this year and 6.42 mt last year. Brazil’s March to September export total is 18.3 mt, which matches their export figures from last year. Corn volume hit a 52-week low today. In my write up yesterday I mentioned that funds would likely go risk off with the lack of government data. In my Barchart article on Monday, I included some volatility option strategies to take advantage of the low volatility. Harvest pace is expected to pick up over the next 2 weeks. The September WASDE originally scheduled for October 9 is likely canceled, unless there’s a resolution to the government shutdown before then.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (419) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (423) 100-day, (438) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (436) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (440) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 506 (-6), with a high of 514, low of 505. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 524 (-5). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 480 (+2). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 492 (-3).
Wheat traded 7 cents lower, after trading 1 cent higher in the overnight session. There’s plenty of wheat supply available due to slower export pace from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. Egypt is typically a large importer and their purchases are down 34% y/oy. StoneX estimates funds sold 3,000 wheat contracts today. Bangladesh bought 200,00 tons of US wheat. US wheat sowing is close to the half-way point, which is near last year’s pace. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s sowing pace is at 50% complete, versus 12% this time last year.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (511) 5-day, (518) 20-day, (525) 50-day, (548) 100-day, (575) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (529) 5-day, (536) 20-day, (543) 50-day, (567) 100-day, (593) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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