Soybeans–
Soybeans were higher in the overnight session and continued higher today. China has continued buying US soybeans with 7 cargoes booked for shipment through mid-December. It has also been reported that the deadline for Chinese soybean exports is now February instead of the end of the year. Treasury Secretary Bessent switching the deadline 3 months later than initially announced doesn’t inspire confidence in meeting the 12 mmt target. It also raises the question of how firm of a deal was really set between the US and China after the APEC Summit in regard to soybean purchases. However, expanding the timeline could have an effect on whether the Chinese purchases are priced in due to the added uncertainty. Meanwhile, South America still needs more rain in its soybean areas. If more rain fails to materialize by mid-December crop stress will increase.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1119 (+4), high of 1124, low of 1114. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1128 (+3), high of 1133, low of 1124. Cash price is at 1088 (-7)
January Bean Meal (ZMF26) settled at 311.2 (-0.1) high of 316.2, low of 310.7
January Bean Oil (ZLF26)) settled at 51.79 (+0.12) high of 51.91, low of 51.19
Meal to Oil ratio (54.575% Meal – 45.425% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1125) 5-day, (1129) 20-day, (1085) 50-day, (1065) 100-day, (1053) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1134) 5-day, (1138) 20-day, (1097) 50-day, (1078) 100-day, (1062) 200-day
ZMF26 Moving Averages – (313.5) 5-day, (320.0) 20-day, (303.1) 50-day, (296.4) 100-day, (301.9) 200-day
ZLZF26 Moving Averages – (52.12) 5-day, (51.18) 20-day, (50.89) 50-day, (52.16) 100-day, (50.24) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
March ’26 Corn settled at 447 (+3) (ZCH26) high of 448, low of 441. May ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 454 (+3). Cash price is 433 (-6)
Corn closed higher today, along with beans and wheat. Corn is still working to break the resistance at 450 in the March contract. Open interest was lower again yesterday, falling over 10,500 contracts. As of December 2, 18 of the top corn growing states have severe drought or worse. 21% of Iowa is in moderate drought, while 13% of Wisconsin is in extreme drought. Corn is holding up well technically. If corn sinks lower in the next few trading days, it would be a buying opportunity in my opinion. Corn is trading above the 14-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (446) 5-day, (444) 20-day, (440) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (447) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (454) 5-day, (452) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (445) 100-day, (456) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
March Chicago Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 540 (+2), with a high of 541, low of 531. May ‘26 Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 547 (+2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 539 (-2). March KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 534 (+4).
Wheat was higher today with the other grains, but the trading range has been tighter lately. The past 8 sessions have held just a 15 cent range. Bloomberg adjusted their all wheat estimate to 38.5 mmt versus the USDA at 37 mmt. The HRW is starting to look somewhat bullish, but Chicago wheat still looks uncertain. Exports may struggle with the US still competing with cheaper counties. Russian export prices the lowest since September.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (544) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (544) 100-day, (575) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (546) 5-day, (553) 20-day, (547) 50-day, (555) 100-day, (585) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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hschmit@walshtrading.com
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