Soybeans–
After yesterday’s WASDE report soybeans continued lower in the overnight session, trading 5 cents lower. Soybeans came back some today, now back above 1100. Soybeans exports to China lagging, with no Chinese buying rumors this week. Argentina’s export tax is set at its lowest level since 2007, showing the country is really trying to incentivize farmer selling. Soybean meal was lower today. It’s now trading just above the psychological support at 300. January soybean oil is trading slightly above support at 51 cents. Strong domestic demand has supported soybean oil, despite the highest Malaysian palm oil stocks in 6 years.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1091 (+4), high of 1093, low of 1081. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1101 (+2), high of 1102, low of 1093. Cash price is at 1059 (-6)
January Bean Meal (ZMF26) settled at 301.2 (-0.1) high of 302.1, low of 298.7
January Bean Oil (ZLF26)) settled at 51.09 (+0.07) high of 51.50, low of 50.65
Meal to Oil ratio (54.100% Meal – 45.900% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1099) 5-day, (1124) 20-day, (1091) 50-day, (1067) 100-day, (1053) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1110) 5-day, (1133) 20-day, (1102) 50-day, (1080) 100-day, (1063) 200-day
ZMF26 Moving Averages – (305.4) 5-day, (317.0) 20-day, (305.2) 50-day, (297.0) 100-day, (301.6) 200-day
ZLF26 Moving Averages – (51.35) 5-day, (51.33) 20-day, (50.96) 50-day, (51.98) 100-day, (50.34) 200-day
CORN –
March ’26 Corn settled at 444 (-3) (ZCH26) high of 448, low of 443. May ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 451 (-3). Cash price is 440 (+4)
Corn was slightly lower in the overnight session and continued lower today. Corn had a positive reaction to yesterday morning’s WASDE report. The report showed tightening ending stocks due to an increase in new crop exports. World ending stocks also came in below the average guess. The latest COT available, from early November, shows funds short 71,500 contracts, below the key 100k mark. Some analysts estimate fund positioning as short 80k contracts. Corn has been holding support well, but has struggled to break the resistance at 450. I like corn’s chances of moving higher from here. The January report may show a yield cut from 186.0 bpa.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (445) 5-day, (444) 20-day, (441) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (447) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (453) 5-day, (452) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (445) 100-day, (456) 200-day
WHEAT –
March Chicago Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 529 (-5), with a high of 535, low of 525. May ‘26 Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 537 (-3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 535 (-0.25). March KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 523 (-3).
Wheat had a quiet WASDE report, and the response to the report was tame as well. Wheat fell 5 1/2 cents lower in the overnight session and continued lower today. The Argentina export tax cut is bearish as it incentivizes further farmer selling. Coceral cut their production estimate for the EU and the UK to 143.9 mmt from 147.5 mmt previously. Analysts estimate wheat’s fund positioning net short 78k contracts. Russia may face a major drop in its temperatures in part of its key wheat growing areas, which may pose a threat to wheat conditions. World wheat ending stocks were raised 3.44 mmt on the December WASDE. This came as no surprise given all the recent higher production estimates.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (535) 5-day, (541) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (542) 100-day, (572) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (542) 5-day, (550) 20-day, (547) 50-day, (553) 100-day, (583) 200-day
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