Soybeans–
Soybeans continued their rally today, following yesterday’s reversal higher. China has made significant soybean purchases from South America the last 14 days, despite Trump asking China to 4x their soybean imports from the US. The August WASDE showed a yield increase as expected, while acreage was cut by 2.4 ma. The USDA’s decision to lower acreage brought down ending stocks below analyst expectations. The Midwest is expected to see rains this week, with lower temperatures forecasted in the extended forecast. Keep an eye out for the results of next week’s crop tour to see if yield matches the USDA’s estimates.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1024 (+11), high of 1026, low of 1008. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1044 (+11), high of 1047, low of 1028. Cash price is at 1007 (+21)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 287 (+5.6) high of 287.2, low of 280.2
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 53.39 (+0.15) high of 53.94, low of 52.77
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.81% Meal – 48.19% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (994) 5-day, (992) 20-day, (1010) 50-day, (1016) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1013) 5-day, (1010) 20-day, (1023) 50-day, (1025) 100-day, (1025) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (280.4) 5-day, (274.6) 20-day, (282) 50-day, (291.9) 100-day, (302.7) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (53.21) 5-day, (54.97) 20-day, (53.22) 50-day, (50.55) 100-day, (47.29) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -29,619 contracts to their bringing their net short to -65,930 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 19,529 contracts bringing their net short position to -68,230 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -66,976 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -234 contracts, moving to a net short position of -133,592 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -6,902 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,192. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -82,931 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 54,939 contracts after selling -11,661 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 78,565 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 374 (+2), high of 376, low of 370. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 396 3/4 (+2). Cash price is 390 (-11)
The USDA raised acreage and yield significantly yesterday. The move was somewhat expected with many analysts calling for very strong yields for some time now. Exports will need to be huge to help offset the supply. If not for the increases made new crop exports, ethanol, and feed usage ending stocks would be even larger. Looking at the USDA’s past adjustments, they do have a tendency to report a lower final yield then the August number. Crop tours start next week, which will be a chance to see if yields match up with the USDA.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (379) 5-day, (390) 20-day, (405) 50-day, (421) 100-day, (434) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (402) 5-day, (411) 20-day, (423) 50-day, (435) 100-day, (442) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed that corn Managed Money bought 7,435 contracts bringing their net position to -173,750 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,417 contracts bringing their net position to -27,359. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -198,038 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 507 (+2), with a high of 510, low of 502. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 528 (+2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 474 (-12). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 506 (-4).
All wheat production for 2025/26 was estimated at 1.927 bb, compared to 1.929 bb last month. The average estimate for all wheat production was 1.920 bb. Ending stocks for wheat were estimated at 869 mb versus 890 mb in July. SovEcon raised their forecast for Russian wheat production to 85.2 mt, up from 83.6 previously. Ukraine has seen slower export pace since the start of July. Ukraine’s exports sit at 1.42 mt, compared to 2.61 last year. EU SRW exports have also been weak. EU SRW exports are down over 50% y/oy. An export sale of 50k ton of US wheat was made to South Korea this morning.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (512) 5-day, (525) 20-day, (542) 50-day, (550) 100-day, (571) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (532) 5-day, (546) 20-day, (563) 50-day, (572) 100-day, (591) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -80,769 contracts, having increased their short position by -15,445 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 8,644 contracts to bring their net long position to 16,310 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -84,046 contracts.
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