Soybeans–
Soybeans made a large move higher today, closing up over 20 cents. After the markets closed, it was reported that President Trump granted China a 90-day extension to the tariff deadline. Since the announcement was made after the grain markets closed, the overnight session will show how the market views this news. The August WASDE report will be released tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting an increase in yield to 52.9 bpa. The USDA estimated yield at 52.5 in July. New crop ending stocks are expected to show 349 mb, up from 310 mb. Analysts predict world ending stocks to grow slightly above 1 mt from July.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 991 (+24), high of 995, low of 965. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1011 (+23), high of 1015, low of 984. Cash price is at 962 (-6)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 280.8 (+4.2) high of 283.1, low of 275.6
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 53.19 (+0.48) high of 53.79, low of 52.50
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.45% Meal – 48.55% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (974) 5-day, (990) 20-day, (1010) 50-day, (1016) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (993) 5-day, (1008) 20-day, (1022) 50-day, (1024) 100-day, (1025) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (276.6) 5-day, (273.3) 20-day, (282.7) 50-day, (292.4) 100-day, (303.0) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (53.38) 5-day, (55.09) 20-day, (52.96) 50-day, (50.35) 100-day, (47.20) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -29,619 contracts to their bringing their net short to -65,930 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 19,529 contracts bringing their net short position to -68,230 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -66,976 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -234 contracts, moving to a net short position of -133,592 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -6,902 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,192. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -82,931 contracts. The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 54,939 contracts after selling -11,661 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 78,565 contracts
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 385 (+2), high of 387, low of 380. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 407 (+2). Cash price is 399 (-1)
Analysts have been talking about higher yields for new crop corn for some time now. Analysts are expecting to see yields of 184.3 bpa, up from 181 in July. New crop ending stocks are expected at 1.902 bb, compared to 1.660 last month. The market has been pricing in a higher yield around 183-184.5 bpa. If the USDA raises yield any higher it could bring some very bearish sentiment to the corn market. The funds reduced their short position in corn slightly on the latest COT report, however they still hold a sizeable short position. Brazil’s harvest is approaching 80% complete.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (382) 5-day, (393) 20-day, (407) 50-day, (423) 100-day, (435) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (404) 5-day, (414) 20-day, (424) 50-day, (437) 100-day, (443) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed that corn Managed Money bought 7,435 contracts bringing their net position to -173,750 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,417 contracts bringing their net position to -27,359. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -198,038 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 515 (+0.50), with a high of 523, low of 513. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 535 (+0.50). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 485 (-2). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 519 (+0.75).
The wheat market is likely focused on the upcoming meeting between Putin and President Trump in Alaska. Both Russia and Ukraine’s exports were lower in July. Ukraine’s production estimate is 19.7 mt, from 20.6 previously. Wheat saw some short covering to end the week, which allowed the market to move higher. Looking at the estimates ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report, ending stocks are estimated at 882 mb. The USDA estimated ending stocks at 890 mb in July.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (512) 5-day, (529) 20-day, (544) 50-day, (551) 100-day, (573) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (533) 5-day, (549) 20-day, (565) 50-day, (573) 100-day, (593) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -80,769 contracts, having increased their short position by -15,445 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 8,644 contracts to bring their net long position to 16,310 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -84,046 contracts.
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