Soybeans–
Soybeans had a major sell-off to end the week. It seems that the market is not confident that the latter part of the marketing year can provide the kind of export sales the market needs. Soybean exports are at their lowest levels since 2019. China has booked roughly 6 mmt of the 12 mmt target thus far. Soybeans are at support at 1085, but may continue to break, especially given the gap in the chart from October. The December WASDE showed an increase in world ending stocks, while domestic ending stocks were kept unchanged.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1076 (-16), high of 1094, low of 1075. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1086 (-16), high of 1104, low of 1086. Cash price is at 1065 (+2)
January Bean Meal (ZMF26) settled at 302.2 (+0.5) high of 304.6, low of 300.0
January Bean Oil (ZLF26)) settled at 50.06 (-0.75) high of 50.94, low of 49.46
Meal to Oil ratio (54.725% Meal – 45.275% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1088) 5-day, (1118) 20-day, (1093) 50-day, (1068) 100-day, (1054) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1098) 5-day, (1128) 20-day, (1103) 50-day, (1081) 100-day, (1064) 200-day
ZMF26 Moving Averages – (302.7) 5-day, (314.6) 20-day, (306.1) 50-day, (297.2) 100-day, (301.4) 200-day
ZLF26 Moving Averages – (50.84) 5-day, (51.30) 20-day, (50.95) 50-day, (51.87) 100-day, (50.38) 200-day
CORN –
March ’26 Corn settled at 440 (-5) (ZCH26) high of 447, low of 440. May ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 448 (-5). Cash price is 443 (+3)
It’s not surprising to see corn lower to end the week, as corn struggled to break the 450 resistance level all week. Corn has been consolidating and may continue to trade a tighter range with holiday trade approaching. After the rate cut this week, the dollar is close to making a 2-month low. Exports from September-November were up 74% versus last year and should continue to stay strong. Argentia planting is estimated at nearly 60% complete, with conditions at 86% good/excellent.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (444) 5-day, (444) 20-day, (441) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (446) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (452) 5-day, (451) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (446) 100-day, (455) 200-day
WHEAT –
March Chicago Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 529 (-4), with a high of 536, low of 529. May ‘26 Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 537 (-3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 534 (+4). March KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 518 (-4).
Wheat traded 3 3/4 cents lower in the overnight session and continued lower today. Wheat has traded a very tight range lately and should be getting ready for a larger move soon. It will be interesting to see where wheat heads from here. Prior to the December WASDE, supply was already huge on a global scale and the report showed even higher global ending stocks. With all the higher production estimates this was not new information and still wheat is hanging around 530. It’s possible that the wheat market is approaching peak supply fear and starts to slowly see some short covering. The fact that wheat isn’t back near 500 right now could be seen as bullish. For the week ending November 13, wheat exports were 850k mt. Cumulative sales are at 74% of the USDA forecast, compared to the 5-year average at 63.1%.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (532) 5-day, (539) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (541) 100-day, (571) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (540) 5-day, (548) 20-day, (546) 50-day, (552) 100-day, (582) 200-day
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