Soybeans–
The drought monitor is starting to clear up. The last spots of dryness in the Midwest are expected to see rain. China’s bean imports from Brazil rose 37.5% y/oy. Argentina’s bean harvest is 96.5% complete.
Soybean exports for the week ending June 12th were 614k mt at 97.6% of the USDA estimate. The average for this time of year is 98%. The top buyers were Mexico, Germany, Netherlands, Costa Rica, and 63k to unknown. Could the unknown buyer be China?
NOPA crush on Monday was 192.829 mb, the trade estimate was 193.52. Despite the report number being lower than the estimate, it was the highest-ever total for May on record.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1068 (-6), high of 1080, low of 1067. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1060 (-7). Cash price is at 1051 (unchanged)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 284.1 (-0.8) high of 285.9, low of 282.7
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 54.47 (-0.30) high of 55.81, low of 54.24
The July Meal to Oil ratio (50.74% Meal – 49.26% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1071) 5-day, (1056) 20-day, (1053) 50-day, (1049) 100-day, (1048) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1062) 5-day, (1041) 20-day, (1035) 50-day, (1033) 100-day, (1034) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (289.9) 5-day, (297.1) 20-day, (298.7) 50-day, (304.8) 100-day, (311.9) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (53.95) 5-day, (49.34) 20-day, (49.07) 50-day, (47.13) 100-day, (45.28) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 17,038 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 25,639 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,367 contracts bringing their net short position to -160,854 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 43,994 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed meal Managed Money traders bought 9,909 contracts, moving to a net short position of -86,808 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -9,212 contracts bringing their net short position to -62,105. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -50,495 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed Managed Money traders were net long 24,768 contracts after selling -7,222 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 40,033 contracts.
CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 428 (-4), high of 435, low of 428. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 441 (-2). Cash price is 456 (+3)
Temperatures are starting to heat up as the summer kicks off. Forecasts show elevated temperatures through the middle-part of next week. The Midwest will see the highest precipitation which will help the leftover drought areas. Yesterday, there were reports of derecho wind event that damaged crops in Illinois and Indiana. Argentina’s harvest rose 3% this week, to 49% complete. Seasonally we usually see a decline in price heading into July, looking at the 5 and 10 year averages.
Exports for the week ending May 12th were 1.058 mm at 101.2% of the USDA forecast. The average for this time of year is 93.7%.
The EIA said production averaged 1.109 million barrels per day, 11,000 lower than the previous week’s all-time high, but 52,000 higher than a year ago. Ethanol stocks came in at 24.12 million barrels up 386,000 on the week and 503,000 on the year.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (434) 5-day, (442) 20-day, (458) 50-day, (471) 100-day, (465) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (440) 5-day, (442) 20-day, (447) 50-day, (452) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed that corn Managed Money sold -9,977 contracts bringing their net position to -164,020 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 24,108 contracts bringing their net position to -78,344. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -171,062 contracts.
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WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 567 (-6), with a high of 578, low of 565. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 583 (-7). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 576 (+24). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 563 (-8). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 638 (-7)
Wheat closed 6 cents lower today after the huge rally on Wednesday. The mid-week rally took out the highs from April and May in the same day. Wheat is sitting at the 200-day moving average, which is a critical support level. A pullback to 570 could be a good buying opportunity.
French SRW conditions dropped 2% to 68% good/excellent this week. France has been facing dry heat. Argentina’s wheat seeding improved by 22% to 60.3%.
Exports for the week ending June 12th were 427k mt, at 28.2% of the USDA forecast. The average for this time of the year is 23.6%.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (554) 5-day, (542) 20-day, (541) 50-day, (560) 100-day, (576) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (570) 5-day, (557) 20-day, (555) 50-day, (575) 100-day, (589) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (551) 5-day, (538) 20-day, (541) 50-day, (570) 100-day, (581) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (634) 5-day, (621) 20-day, (610) 50-day, (617) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -94,011 contracts, having decreased their short position by 6,561 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,184 contracts to bring their net position to 34,095 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -95,234 contracts.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
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hschmit@walshtrading.com
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