Soybeans–
Soybeans led the grains higher on Wednesday, after trading up 1 3/4 cents higher in the overnight session. President Trump reiterated his plans yesterday regarding a meeting China’s Xi. The WASDE report originally scheduled for tomorrow morning, will be canceled due to the government shutdown. Trade estimates were still released by research firms. The average analyst estimate of soybean yield is 53.2 bpa. Ending stocks are estimated at 317 mb, compared to the September WASDE report at 300 mb. Brazil’s planting pace has been slower due to dryness, if the same weather pattern persists into next week, it could become a problem. The US still remains competitive on the global market with the cheapest soybeans for export. Once the government shutdown ends, a $10-15 billion farmer aid package is expected to be announced.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1029 (+7), high of 1030, low of 1020. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1044 (+5), high of 1045, low of 1036. Cash price is at 978 (+4)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 278.0 (+1.1) high of 279.1, low of 275.0
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 51.48 (+0.66) high of 51.54, low of 51.06
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.92% Meal – 8.08% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1022) 5-day, (1023) 20-day, (1025) 50-day, (1028) 100-day, (1028) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1039) 5-day, (1042) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1042) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (278.0) 5-day, (279.8) 20-day, (284.6) 50-day, (290.0) 100-day, (302.3) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.68) 5-day, (50.78) 20-day, (52.10) 50-day, (52.19) 100-day, (48.75) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 422 (+2), high of 422, low of 418. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 437 (+1). Cash price is 400 (-2)
Corn traded slightly higher, after an even smaller gain in the overnight, up just 1/4 cent. As mentioned above, there will be no WASDE report tomorrow, however trade estimates were released. The average yield estimate for October is 185 bpa, compared to what the USDA gave in September at 186.7 bpa. Ending stocks are estimated at 2.236 bb, compared to 2.110 bb in September. Dr. Cordonnier has yield at 181 bpa. Ukraine has had solid weather for its corn crop. A series of higher production estimates came in from SovEcon at 31.8 mt and LSEG at 31.2 mt. Harvest pace should be picking up over the next 1-2 weeks. Weather is expected to remain favorable and mostly dry; chances of chain are shown in the forecast for the northern Midwest. Attention will shift towards South America over the next several months as their new crop corn gets started.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (420) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (415) 50-day, (423) 100-day, (438) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (437) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (440) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 507 (+0.50), with a high of 508, low of 503. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 525 (+0.50). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 475 (-4). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 493 (+1).
Wheat saw an increase in open interest on yesterday’s move lower, which suggests new short positions being initiated. Fundamentals for wheat remain bearish but we could still see some short covering here and there. A lower euro has made EU wheat more competitive, meanwhile Russian exports have start to pick up. Rusagrotrans estimates Russian exports for October could reach 5.1 mt, up from 4.6 mt for September. US ending stocks still remain elevated and world stocks are also high. The dollar has been strengthening, which does not help exports.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (511) 5-day, (518) 20-day, (524) 50-day, (548) 100-day, (574) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (529) 5-day, (536) 20-day, (542) 50-day, (566) 100-day, (592) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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