SOYBEANS –
U.S. planting is 84% complete compared to 77% last year at this time. Planting is lagging behind in the South with Tennessee, Kentucky, and Mississippi having the slowest planting pace. Despite mixed conditions in Brazil, StoneX raised its Brazil crop estimate to 168.25 mb. The USDA estimate is 169 mb.
Soybean crush came out yesterday. NASS soybean crush for April was 202.38 million bushels, the pre-report estimate was 202.0. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.976 billion pounds compared to the average guess of 2.150. Soybean oil stocks are also below last year’s supply at this time of year at 2.311 bp.
For the week ending May 29, soybean sales were 268k mt. Cumulative soybean sales have reached 88% of the USDA forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year. The 5-year average is 86%.
Looking at technicals for July soybeans, support is at 1026, resistance is 1044.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1040 (+7), high of 1044, low of 1032. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1021 (+4). Cash price is at 1018 (-9)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 294.5 (+0.6) high of 296, low of 293.3
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 46.81 (+0.53) high of 46.96, low of 45.74
The July Meal to Oil ratio (56.01% Meal – 43.99% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1043) 5-day, (1053) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1050) 100-day, (1046) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1028) 5-day, (1038) 20-day, (1027) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (295.0) 5-day, (294.6) 20-day, (297.4) 50-day, (305.5) 100-day, (312) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (47.46) 5-day, (48.94) 20-day, (47.96) 50-day, (46.61) 100-day, (44.72) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 24,043 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 36,697 contracts. CIT traders were net long 160,842 contracts after increasing their already long position by 2,973 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -2,309 contracts, having decreased their short position by 16,564 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 55,242.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed meal Managed Money traders bought 13,681 contracts, moving to a net short position of -93,785 contracts. CIT traders were net long 74,519 contracts after decreasing their long position by -1,671 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -83,092 contracts after increasing their long position by 14,444 contracts. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 53,104 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed Managed Money traders were net long 53,988 contracts after selling -3,321 contracts. CIT traders were net long 130,813 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders bought 1,144 contracts, to a net with a total of 2,077 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net bought 67,989 contracts.
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CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 438 (+0.25), high of 442, low of 434. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 438 (+2). Cash price is 449 (-0.75)
Corn planting progress is at 93% complete in-line with the average. Planting progress has been slower in Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, and Tennessee. Crop conditions rose slightly yesterday to 69%, a gain of 1%. Crop progress at this time last year was 75%. StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil’s crop to 106.1 mt from 104.3 mt. The USDA estimate is 130 mt.
The corn market traded lower again today. Solid rains have been beneficial for early development in corn. Wheat was higher today, along with a lower dollar but it didn’t do much for the corn market. Argentina saw some light frost in corn areas over the weekend but crop damage is expected to be unlikely. At this time, there is no weather story to drive the market higher. We’re watching for possible drier weather coming to the Plains and Midwest by June 16th.
Exports for the week ending May 29 were 1.57m mt. Cumulative sales are at 73.6% of the USDA’s forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Ethanol average daily production for the week ending May 23rd averaged 1.056 mb, up 1.9% over last week. Ethanol production is still down 1.1% from last year, but up 0.8% over last April. Ethanol’s five-year average is 0.976 mb per day. Corn use for the week was estimated at 106.54 mb. The average daily production needs to be 99.66 mb per week to reach the USDA’s marketing year forecast at 5.500 bb.
Support on Dec corn 425, 436, Resistance 444, 448, 468 in July corn.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (443) 5-day, (449) 20-day, (465) 50-day, (478) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (439) 5-day, (442) 20-day, (448) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed that corn Managed Money bought 2,450, bringing their net position to -100,760 contracts. CIT traders increased their net long position by 13,396 contracts to a long position of 326,490 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders sold -26,359 contracts, to a net short position of -216,158 contracts. Meanwhile, Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -115,683.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 536 (-3), with a high of 545, low of 531. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 550 (-2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 540 (+6). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 536 (-3). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 618 (-9)
Winter wheat conditions rose to 52%, up from 50% on the last report and 49% last year. Ukraine grain harvest is expected to fall 10% y/oy due to the war and weather pressure. Russia’s Volga region is dry and rains need to develop to improve crop conditions. Some rain is in the forecast for mid-June, but the rest of the month looks very dry. Managed money still holds a large short position, so short covering is still possible with a move higher in the wheat market.
Exports for the week ending May 33 were 582k. Cumulative sales are 22.5% of the USDA’s forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year. The 5-year average is 14.2%. Sales need to average 254k mt per week to reach the USDA forecast.
July Chicago wheat support is at 522, 525, resistance is at 541.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (534) 5-day, (532) 20-day, (542) 50-day, (563) 100-day, (578) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (549) 5-day, (547) 20-day, (557) 50-day, (577) 100-day, (591) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (533) 5-day, (528) 20-day, (549) 50-day, (574) 100-day, (583) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (618) 5-day, (599) 20-day, (604) 50-day, (615) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -101,226 contracts, having decreased their short position by 7,667 contracts. Wheat CIT traders reached a long position of 37,117 contracts, decreasing their long position by -1,954 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -94,165 contracts after net buying 5,124 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -99,257.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
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hschmit@walshtrading.com
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