Soybeans–
Despite fears that China may not come through on the 12 mmt purchase by the end of the year, soybeans had a solid gain today. Reportedly China has plenty of soybeans for feed use after buying so many cargoes from South America. Soybeans are trading like funds are extremely long. Funds may decide to go risk-off leading into Friday’s report. Pre-report estimates for Friday’s WASDE show yield an average yield of 53.1 bpa, compared to 53.5 bpa the USDA gave in September. Ending stocks are estimated at an average of 306 mb, compared to 300 mb in September. The low estimate is 187 mb the high estimate is 450 mb. The average production estimate is 4,271 mb. In September, the USDA estimated domestic soybean production at 4,301 mb.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1133 (+6), high of 1134, low of 1122. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1144 (-1), high of 1144, low of 1132. Cash price is at 1092 (-7)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 321.0 (+4.1) high of 322.2, low of 315.4
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.62 (-0.48) high of 51.06, low of 51.33
Meal to Oil ratio (56.075% Meal – 43.925% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1123) 5-day, (1092) 20-day, (1061) 50-day, (1051) 100-day, (1048) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1132) 5-day, (1102) 20-day, (1074) 50-day, (1065) 100-day, (1057) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (317.5) 5-day, (305.4) 20-day, (290.2) 50-day, (288.5) 100-day, (299.5) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.27) 5-day, (50.25) 20-day, (50.59) 50-day, (52.25) 100-day, (49.67) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 435 (+3), high of 436, low of 431. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 449 (+2). Cash price is 428 (+2)
Corn was a little bit higher today, after closing closer to unchanged in the overnight session. The average estimate for corn yield is 184.0 bpa, compared to the USDA’s September figure at 186.7 bpa. The lowest yield estimate is 181.7, while the highest estimate for the yield is 186.3 bpa. Even the highest yield estimate is below the USDA’s September estimate. Analysts are expecting this report to come out friendly, with a drop in yield. The average production estimate is 16,566, compared to 16,814 bb in September. The average ending stock estimate is 2,168 bb versus 2,110 bb in September. Even if the report doesn’t come out as friendly, as many are expecting, it may not be a problem because that would be an opportunity for more exports to be made. Export pace is already very strong.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (430) 5-day, (428) 20-day, (423) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (435) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (445) 5-day, (442) 20-day, (439) 50-day, (435) 100-day, (450) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 536 (unchanged), with a high of 536, low of 527. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 552 (+0.75). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 509 (unchanged). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 525 (+1).
Wheat was down 8 cents in the overnight session, but finished the day session close to unchanged. New crop ending stocks on Friday’s report are estimated at 869 mb on average. The low end of estimates is 828 mb, and the high end of estimates is 905 mb. The USDA estimated ending stocks at 844 mb in September. Ukraine’s winter wheat planting is estimated at 94% complete, while the French SRW production was estimated 33.3 mt. China has not indicated they will be buying any more US wheat. Russian and French wheat are still cheaper than the US.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (534) 5-day, (525) 20-day, (519) 50-day, (533) 100-day, (565) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (549) 5-day, (540) 20-day, (536) 50-day, (551) 100-day, (583) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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