Soybeans–
Soybeans continue to show strength ahead of the meeting with China at the end of the month. Brazil’s production is now estimated at 171.8 mt, which is 6.5 mt higher than the previous estimate. Exports are estimated at 110 mt versus the prior estimate at 109.5 mt. Brazil soybean meal crushing is estimated at 60.5 mt for new crop, compared to 58.5 mt las year. Brazil is also expected to see an increase in exports of soybean oil. Analysts estimate at 25% increase in soybean oil exports y/oy. The next are of resistance for soybeans is 1047. The high from August is 1062 3/4.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1062 (+12), high of 1062, low of 1049. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1075 (+12), high of 1075, low of 1062. Cash price is at 997 (+4)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 292.3 (+2.3) high of 292.4, low of 288.3
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.87 (+0.80) high of 51.13, low of 50.03
Meal to Oil ratio (53.67% Meal – 46.33% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1049) 5-day, (1036) 20-day, (1047) 50-day, (1043) 100-day, (1043) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1063) 5-day, (1050) 20-day, (1062) 50-day, (1057) 100-day, (1051) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (287.0) 5-day, (278.8) 20-day, (283.8) 50-day, (287.1) 100-day, (300.1) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.81) 5-day, (50.55) 20-day, (51.42) 50-day, (52.34) 100-day, (49.30) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 428 (+5), high of 428, low of 421. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 441 (+5). Cash price is 411 (-16)
Corn had another nice gain today, after trading 1 3/4 cents higher in the overnight session. Crude oil strength is supporting corn, along with higher moves in the rest of the grains. Ethanol stocks for the week ending October 17, were 21.919 mb, which is the lowest since October of 2024. Brazil has solid weather. There is dryness in roughly 20% of corn areas but weather forecasters expect that to be resolved once the rainy season resumes in November. India is seeking US corn for ethanol, with crude prices on the rise. A trade deal with India may be coming soon. Corn continues to charge higher, despite peak harvest pressure. A close above 431 1/4 in the Dec contract would be very bullish.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (423) 5-day, (419) 20-day, (418) 50-day, (420) 100-day, (437) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (436) 5-day, (435) 20-day, (434) 50-day, (437) 100-day, (452) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 513 (+9), with a high of 513, low of 502. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 528 (+8). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 485 (+3). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 500 (+11).
Wheat traded 9 cents higher, after a 1 1/2 cent gain in the overnight session. This is the highest gain wheat has a had in a while. It could be a sign that the trend is starting to change. The next resistance for Dec wheat is 517, support is at 508. There are no signs of Russia and Ukraine slowing down their war. Trump says his talks with Putin have gone well, but Putin is not interested in peace. The US has upgraded weapons from the US that can be used to strike deep inside Russia. If the Ukraine ramps up its strikes inside Russia that could affect Russian exports. Trump has also put sanctions on Russian oil which can hurt Russian exports. If wheat keeps trading higher, more short covering can happen. Funds are expected to be short over 100,000 contracts.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (505) 5-day, (507) 20-day, (517) 50-day, (540) 100-day, (569) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (521) 5-day, (524) 20-day, (535) 50-day, (558) 100-day, (587) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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