Soybeans–
Yesterday, there was talk from the White House about limiting Chinese farmland ownership. Chinese farm ownership in the U.S. will likely be part of trade negotiations. Weather continues to be favorable. The upcoming WASDE report on Friday, is expected to see an increase in ending stocks for old crop to 358 mb, while new crop is expected at 304 mb, compared to 295 mb in June. Soybean conditions sit unchanged at 66% good/excellent, compared to 68% last year. Illinois and Ohio are the states with weaker crop conditions, with Iowa showing the best conditions at 79% good/excellent. Managed money has gone nearly flat the soybean market, reducing their net short to a long position of only 425 contracts.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1009 (-12), high of 1024, low of 1007. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1007 (-10). Cash price is at 1001 (-7)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 269.4 (-1.3) high of 272.3, low of 269.2
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 53.29 (-0.82) high of 54.21, low of 53.24
The August Meal to Oil ratio (50.28% Meal – 49.72% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1034) 5-day, (1046) 20-day, (1047) 50-day, (1041) 100-day, (1043) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1028) 5-day, (1037) 20-day, (1035) 50-day, (1029) 100-day, (1032) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (273.3) 5-day, (283.3) 20-day, (292.4) 50-day, (299.4) 100-day, (308.4) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (54.18) 5-day, (52.72) 20-day, (50.44) 50-day, (48) 100-day, (45.97) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 1st showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -23,023 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 425 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,209 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,591 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 2,771 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed meal Managed Money traders sold -21,858 contracts, moving to a net short position of -131,938 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,331 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,397. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -87,896 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 39,411 contracts after selling -4,908 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 63,772 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 399 (+1), high of 401, low of 396. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 415 (+1). Cash price is 426 (-5)
In the overnight session corn fell below $4.00 in the September contract and again during the day session. The WASDE report comes out Friday. The USDA will likely keep yield close to 181. Some analysts are calling for higher yield. StoneX is estimating 16.9 bpa, which would add 500 mb to ending stocks. Based on the USDA’s recent decision making this seems unlikely. IMEA raised its estimate for Brazil’s Monto Grosso region to 54 mt, up from 50.4 last month. Corn conditions were 74% last week, up 1% over last week and up 6% over last year.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (407) 5-day, (415) 20-day, (424) 50-day, (438) 100-day, (441) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (424) 5-day, (431) 20-day, (438) 50-day, (447) 100-day, (447) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that corn Managed Money sold -24,181 contracts bringing their net position to -206,463 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 34,649 contracts bringing their net position to -26,531. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -214,077 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 547 (-0.75), with a high of 551, low of 541. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 567 (-1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 525(-1). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 524 (+1).
Wheat has held support better than the rest of the grains, but hasn’t shown signs of a rally yet. LSEG raised its forecast for the Russian harvest up 1.6% to 83.2 mt. Harvest pressure will continue in the weeks ahead. HRS wheat conditions continue to trail averages, while HRW yields show strength. The Russian Ag Ministry took off its wheat export tax to boost export demand. Now SovEcon has raised its 25/26 wheat export forecast to 42.9 mmt, up 2.1 mmt. The USDA estimate for Russian wheat exports is 45 mmt.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (552) 5-day, (554) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (568) 100-day, (585) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (573) 5-day, (576) 20-day, (573) 50-day, (590) 100-day, (604) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -63,071 contracts, having decreased their short position by 1,596 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,579 contracts to bring their net long position to 10,630 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -76,571 contracts.
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