Soybeans–
Soybeans acres under drought continue to decrease. A seasonally cool weather pattern has developed over the northern Midwest, but it should end by early next week as heat moves from the west. Yesterday, there was morning flash sale for new crop soybeans, and rumors were that China may be potentially be the buyer. China is importing a record number of soybeans, however most of its imports are coming from Brazil. Australia is nearing a deal to export Canola to China, as China is looking to diversify imports.
For the week ending July 10th, exports for soybeans were 356k mt for the current marketing year and 663k mt for the next marketing year. The top buyers were Mexico, unknown, and Taiwan.
Exports for soybean meal were 356k mt for the current market year and 174k mt for the next marketing year.
Exports for soybean oil totaled 7k mt.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1021(+8), high of 1022, low of 1009. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1026 (+6), high of 1029, low of 1016. Cash price is at 1001 (+19)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 268.7 (+0.3) high of 269.4, low of 266.3
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 56.22 (+1.40) high of 56.43, low of 54.72
The August Meal to Oil ratio (48.87% Meal – 51.13% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1007) 5-day, (1031) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1037) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1012) 5-day, (1027) 20-day, (1034) 50-day, (1027) 100-day, (1030) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (268.1) 5-day, (275.4) 20-day, (288.8) 50-day, (296.9) 100-day, (306.4) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (54.70) 5-day, (53.82) 20-day, (51.05) 50-day, (48.43) 100-day, (46.31) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 1st showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -23,023 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 425 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,209 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,591 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 2,771 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed meal Managed Money traders sold -21,858 contracts, moving to a net short position of -131,938 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,331 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,397. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -87,896 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 39,411 contracts after selling -4,908 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 63,772 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 402 (-3), high of 407, low of 400. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 421 (-3). Cash price is 433 (+4)
Drought conditions for corn continue to fall, however that could change as the western corn belt is expected to see minimal moisture through August. The central and southern plains are also forecasted to be very dry in the extended forecasts. LSEG raised it’s forecast for Brazil’s second crop corn production to 131.2 mt, up 1%.
Ethanol production for the week ending July 11th averaged 1.087 mb, up 0.2% above last week. Although, the average daily production is still 1.7% lower than last year. Ethanol production for the week was 7.609 mb. Ethanol stocks were 23.635 mb, a new high for this week of the year. The prior high was 23.553 mb in 2023. Corn usage for the week was estimated at 109 mb, with the cumulative corn use for the crop year at 4.849 bb.
Corn exports for the week ending July 10th, were 97k mt for the current market year and 565k mt for the next marketing year. The current pace is at 96.1% of the 5-year average, still below the estimate range. Top buyers of corn were Japan, Mexico, and Colombia.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (400) 5-day, (408) 20-day, (420) 50-day, (433) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (419) 5-day, (424) 20-day, (435) 50-day, (444) 100-day, (446) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that corn Managed Money sold -24,181 contracts bringing their net position to -206,463 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 34,649 contracts bringing their net position to -26,531. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -214,077 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 533 (-7), with a high of 542, low of 532. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 554 (-7). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 513 (+3). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 517 (-5).
Wheat has shown some weakness this week compared to corn and soybeans. The market is facing harvest pressure from several countries, but the large Russian crop is the most significant. SovEcon raised its estimate for Russian wheat production to 83.6 mt, up 0.6 mt. Looking at domestic wheat, HRS areas are expected to see rain that is likely to help crop conditions. Argentina’s wheat production was lowered by the Rosario Grain Exchange to 20 mt, from 20.7 mt.
The next resistance is 543, with support at 532.
Wheat exports for the week ending July 10th, were 494k mt for the current market year and none for the next marketing year. The current pace is at 31.6% of the 5-year average.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (539) 5-day, (551) 20-day, (550) 50-day, (562) 100-day, (582) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (560) 5-day, (572) 20-day, (572) 50-day, (584) 100-day, (601) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -63,071 contracts, having decreased their short position by 1,596 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,579 contracts to bring their net long position to 10,630 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -76,571 contracts.
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