Soybeans–
Soybeans were higher again today, after trading 5 cents higher in the overnight session. Chinese soybean imports hit a record high for the month, up 6.4% on the year. Chinese vegetable oil imports are down nearly 7% on the year. 3 US companies are now eligible to export soybeans into China, the companies are: CHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT. It was slightly surprising to see soybeans higher today with open interest down 11k contracts yesterday on the move higher. Soybean meal traded lower yesterday after Argentine plant workers agreed to avoid a strike, but soybean meal was big up again today. Traders may take profits with the higher close on a Friday, but more upside is likely ahead for soybeans as they don’t stay at 1100 long historically.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1117 (+9), high of 1118, low of 1108. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1125 (+8), high of 1126, low of 1117. Cash price is at 1075 (-27)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 317.1 (+4.4) high of 317.4, low of 311.5
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 49.68 (+0.33) high of 49.88, low of 49.00
Meal to Oil ratio (56.075% Meal – 43.925% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1122) 5-day, (1076) 20-day, (1057) 50-day, (1049) 100-day, (1047) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1130) 5-day, (1087) 20-day, (1070) 50-day, (1063) 100-day, (1055) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (318.6) 5-day, (298.7) 20-day, (288.1) 50-day, (287.9) 100-day, (299.6) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (49.62) 5-day, (50.24) 20-day, (50.68) 50-day, (52.36) 100-day, (49.58) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 427 (-1), high of 430, low of 426. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 442 (-1). Cash price is 423 (-6)
Corn was lower today, after trading unchanged in the overnight session. Analyst estimates for next Friday’s WASDE are estimating no change in yield or a slight decrease. The USDA’s latest yield estimate in September was 186.7 bpa. I think the USDA waits until Janaury to make any major adjustments to yield, but we’ll see. Argentina’s planting is estimated at 36% complete, compared to 29% this time last year. Corn conditions in Argentina were 79% good/excellent from 73% last week. Corn could have some more upside from here, but I like soybeans better.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (431) 5-day, (425) 20-day, (423) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (436) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (445) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (439) 50-day, (435) 100-day, (451) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 527 (-7), with a high of 537, low of 526. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 542 (-7). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 533 (-19). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 519 (-3).
Wheat traded lower, after a 1 3/4 drop in the overnight session. China did some small buying of US wheat, which sparked the rally. The market is awaiting any updates in regard to more purchases from China. The UN has world wheat stocks-to-use at an 8-year high. Meanwhile, Russia lifted its export duty by nearly 55% to increase exports. Previously, Russia added an export duty to its wheat market after sanctions were placed on Russian oil. Lowering the export duty so soon could indicate exports were generating revenue as expected with the higher duty in place. French SRW planting is estimated at 79% complete versus the average at 74%. US winter wheat conditions are 2 points lower than last week 38%. Winter wheat conditions were 57% last year at this time.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (542) 5-day, (519) 20-day, (519) 50-day, (535) 100-day, (566) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (556) 5-day, (535) 20-day, (535) 50-day, (553) 100-day, (584) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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