Soybeans–
Growing conditions have been favorable, overall, for soybeans. Soybean ratings for this week improved by 2 points to 70% good/excellent. Soybeans now have the best conditions for this week of the year since 2020. Last year at this time, soybean ratings were 67% good/excellent. China and U.S. trade discussions continued today in Sweden. China has yet purchased any soybeans for the first quarter. China has a supply glut after importing a record number of soybeans earlier in the year. Soybean oil continues to show strength as the oil share increases.
Exports for the week ending July 24, were 409k mt, which is 93% of the USDA estimate. The 5-year average for exports, this time of year, is 91%. Top export destinations for soybeans were Egypt, the Netherlands, Mexico, Japan, and Saudi Arabia.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 981 (-7), high of 990, low of 976. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1009 (-2), high of 1013, low of 1004. Cash price is at 980 (-7)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 261.7 (-3.2) high of 265.8, low of 261.3
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 57.54 (+0.99) high of 57.73, low of 56.23
The August Meal to Oil ratio (47.63% Meal – 52.37% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (995) 5-day, (1014) 20-day, (1035) 50-day, (1034) 100-day, (1037) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1017) 5-day, (1021) 20-day, (1031) 50-day, (1026) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (267.6) 5-day, (270) 20-day, (284.2) 50-day, (293.6) 100-day, (303.8) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (56.68) 5-day, (55.12) 20-day, (52.14) 50-day, (49.35) 100-day, (46.80) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 22 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 21,412 contracts to their bringing their net short to -10,866 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -19,646 contracts bringing their net short position to -101,647 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -13,480 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,273 contracts, moving to a net short position of -129,743 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,960 contracts bringing their net short position to -34,832. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -78,416 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 55,326 contracts after buying 12,105 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 86,179 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 389 (-4), high of 394, low of 387. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 411 (-3). Cash price is 419 (-5)
After a very slight gain in the overnight, corn was lower again on Tuesday. The 8-14 day forecast shows higher temperatures across the corn belt with above-average rains for the eastern corn belt. Corn ratings fell 1 point to 73% good/excellent. Corn ratings are the best on record since 2017. Last year at this time of year, corn ratings were 68% good/excellent. The states with the best improvement in corn ratings were Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Texas, and North Dakota. Brazil’s harvest is estimated at 68% complete compared to 91% last year. Recent estimates have corn yield estimated at 186.4 bpa. The USDA estimated corn yield at 181 bpa on the July WASDE report.
Exports for the week ending July 24, were 1.52 mt, which is 88.8% of the USDA estimate. The 5-year average for exports, this time of year, is 79.9%. Top export destinations for corn exports were Japan, Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, and Panama.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (396) 5-day, (402) 20-day, (415) 50-day, (428) 100-day, (437) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (416) 5-day, (420) 20-day, (431) 50-day, (441) 100-day, (444) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed that corn Managed Money sold -2,610 contracts bringing their net position to -177,365 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 12,062 contracts bringing their net position to -28,232. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -199,643 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 529 (-8), with a high of 539, low of 526. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 550 (-8). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 512 (+0.25). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 518 (-7).
Wheat traded 6 ¾ lower in the overnight and lower again during Tuesday’s session. September wheat hit a new 2 ½ on Tuesday morning. The dollar is starting to show strength after the trade deal announcements, recently hitting a 1-month high. Exports exceeded expectations on the latest export report. The top destinations for wheat exports were Nigeria, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and Ecuador. China has bought less Australian wheat causing a raise in Australian ending stocks. President Trump’s effort to de-escalate the war between Russia and Ukraine could be another factor weighing on the wheat market. The shortened deadline to add new sanctions against Russia is quickly approaching. Managed money has taken some profits in wheat but more downside could be ahead.
Exports for the week ending July 24, were 288k mt, which is 14.3% of the USDA estimate. The 5-year average for exports, this time of year, is 13.6%.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (537) 5-day, (544) 20-day, (550) 50-day, (558) 100-day, (578) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (557) 5-day, (565) 20-day, (572) 50-day, (580) 100-day, (597) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -52,041 contracts, having decreased their short position by 8,446 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -6,882 contracts to bring their net short position to -1,123 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -65,351 contracts.
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