Soybean Complex: Focus on Wave Structure

John LunneyGeneral Commentary

September Soybeans

     September soybeans inched higher today to post new recent highs of 992.2 easing slightly to finish at 990.6. Looking at the wave formation from the lows established at just below 905 it appears that the first three series of a five wave structure could be in place. There is seldom any glory in attempting to pick a high in anticipation of a fourth wave correction. I’d be more inclined to wait for a choppy pullback to a measurable target zone. Daily candle represents a potential hanging man and could be foreshadowing a slight pullback. Below 987 prices dip to +/-979 inner trend line and prior intermediate fourth wave subset extreme. A crack here extends to +/- 970-968. This area represents the .382 retracement and speed resistance line convergence location. I’ be expecting a fourth wave low to be established and thus anticipating the last leg of the before mentioned structure. A rebound off here would look to challenge the 1000 level. If on the other hand the market refuses to back off the next upside projection checks in at +/- 1003 with overhead extreme at roughly 1012.

 

September Soybean Meal

     Similar action unfolds in the meal market. Holding below 322.0 looks to ease. First intermediate support comes in at 318.0. A crack here looks to extend to 315-313 confluence zone. This marks the location I’d be expecting a fourth wave low to develop. Next wave higher should carry contract to +/- 327. If market fails to pullback any further gains would look to extend to 330-333.

 

September Soybean Oil

     Tight range develops in the oil market today closing below prior day’s body low at 32.83. If contract were to ease further it will find support at +/- 32.50. If yesterday’s low marks an x wave extreme then prices will hold hold up. A rebound from this location targets upper channel line at roughly 34.15. A failure to gain footing above 32.47 threatens to test lower channel line at +/- 32.07. A crack extends to 31.76.