The market has been moving around since the usda report. The oilshare has been whipped back and forth. The close today at approx 33% could be important. As Ive said the 33.7% level will be important. A test of that level could make way for a move to 35.7% The outlook has changed a bit in the short run with the reduction in the stocks. It is possible to see a 550-575 carry which looks good after the 1 billion thoughts. The weather is also a supportive factor. The cool weather will stall further growth which could limit the size of the beans. We are above the 900 level in nov. A move towards 930 will present the opportunity for sales. The long run could show increases in the SA crop size. Planting is now underway. Look for the SA crops to offer resistance as the competition for exports heats up. In addition Argentina,and to a lesser extent Brazil are now approved to supply China with Meal. This will be a shift that will affect the US Meal and Margins. The Crush Margins have fallen considerably. It has been my contention they are overvalued. Look for a retracement of the recent break as a selling opportunity. As always quantify the risk of any position.
