COMMENTARY:
The soy complex bounced today. The market rebounded based on the bean oil strength. The oil share is bouncing, currently at 44.3%. The range over the last month or two was 48% high to approx 40% low. The recent run up in crude oil has put a floor under veg oils. In addition, the global vegoil markets have yet to become supplied in an ample fashion. The palm remains supported due to a lack of workers. The sunflower market is not supplied yet due to farmer holding. This is a market that will be very abundant when the farmer sells. There are other reasons, but the point is that the current state of vegoils is supported globally. The domestic market for soyoil is more than ample as the crush pace pushes stocks to 2 bil lbs. Typically a bearish figure. There remains a global tug of war at present. The margins are high. Look for this to drive expanding crush rates. The current prices present value to the producer. The future acreage should look to expand given price structure relative to other row crop. As always quantify your risk.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
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