COMMENTARY:
SOY
BEANS – The beans started higher today with the feed grains moving higher. The strength spilled over. However, this was not able to hold as the reality of weak exports pressured beans to lower levels. The weather in Brazil has been very good. The soil moisture levels are now in good shape. This has many private analysts predicting record production. It is my belief beans could continue to struggle. It is of course a concern for La Nina, and if realized would give the market a jolt.
MEAL – The meal was moderately higher today. The most important aspect was a relatively higher trade with meal gaining on both beans and oil. As I mentioned yesterday, this could be the start of a more meaningful correction. The meal market has picked up of late and should offer some support at these current levels. The crush should be watched. Any slowdowns will offer a bit of upside in meal potentially.
OIL – The bean oil came under selling pressure again today. The vegoil markets are moving slowly towards a better supplied market. The main area of concern remains canadian canola. This will only be solved through rationing. However at present the global vegoil markets seem a bit over priced. Look for rallies as selling opportunities as the oil share continues to correct.
Quantify your risk.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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