COMMENTARY:
SOY
BEANS – The USDA report today was important , in my opinion . The domestic market saw the USDA raise the 21/22 production . The demand was adjusted . This shows now a 320 million bushel carry . It has been my suggestion for some time that the carry will rise above 300 million bu . This essentially doubles the stocks to usage and alleviates tightness . The demand from China will now be key . The global outlook was also more bearish . The global crush is lowered . The The global carry is raised 5.7 mln mmt . This will put the global numbers above 104 mmt . This in my opinion is significant . It is possible the global market is entering into a bear mode.
MEAL – The USDA balanced the meal numbers bringing the carry to 400 . The supply grew 200 t shrt tons, while the domestic disappearance was 300 larger . The market in meal has been the weakest of late . It is true I do not see a bull market in meal . I do think however , meal relative to beans may start to show some relative strength.
BEAN OIL – The bean oil today was very weak both flat price and on a relative basis. The carry jumps to approx 1.8 bil lbs . This is fairly significant . The USDA adjusted the demand through the domestic disappearance , and the supply as well . The key to the flat price at present is the palm oil price . The market has been slowly coming closed to bean oil . A lack of workers has kept the markets tight and undersupplied . When this changes , the vegoil markets may come under some pressure.
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BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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