COMMENTARY:
BEANS – The beans were sharply higher today. The last week witnessed weakness. The market is gaining back. The condition report yesterday showed a 1% decline in ratings. This contradicts the Pro Farmer crop tour that recently released yields 1.5 bu larger than the usda is currently using. The recent rains had most guessing improvement was in the cards. It was not to be. In addition weather agencies are reporting potentially long term dry weather in South America. This would be 2 years in a row and historically rare. This of course remains to be seen. The question now is have we started a bear market and this is a bounce? Or will the crop be problematic and get smaller, which I just don’t see. The demand scenario now is very important and South America will be in the drivers seat given the global availability. Food for Thought.
MEAL – The meal had a large bounce. As mentioned yesterday it does appear that the meal reached a point of weakness that would be defended. The market rebounded today with some global demand surfacing. It is my thought that meal will set up a trading range in the weeks to come. It could be as wide as 30 per ton. I don’t see a reason for a big bull story here, however, the meal will be supported at present on breaks.
BEANOIL – The oil and the oil share were well supported today. The market rose on the bean fundamentals. Also Palm has rebounded from recent weakness. It is my thought that the bean oil is testing recent highs after the break. It is also my thought that the bean oil highs are in place. There isn’t much new news to cover that I already haven’t talked about.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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