COMMENTARY:
BEANS – The market started sharply higher overnight. As the evening progressed the market eased back. The weekend saw good solid rains produced. These rains should show a positive impact on yield potential. The one positive coming into today was the Palm oil bouncing 1%. This perhaps was the support early. The Pro Farmer tour concluded with the thought that the bean crop was understated by the USDA. This seems realistic to me. In addition further rains can add more bushels. If the Pro Farmer is correct, then the carry will jump toward 285 mil bu. This without a further count of double crop acres. I believe there will be more double crop acres. In addition the Chinese are reducing purchases. If true this will add to the carry over. It is my humble opinion that the carry will be 300 – 325 million bu. Given the global numbers. The price of $13.00 may prove rich.
MEAL – The meal was under pressure today. The meal market may have had a blow off to the down side today. While I am not bullish meal, it is my contention the overall weakness on a relative basis may be close to an end. This could indicate oilshare is close to a top. The global meal market is not strong, but in my opinion may be finding an area of value at least at the time being.
BEANOIL – The vegoil took off today with the strength in Palm. It is my thought that bean oil may be near a relative top. As well as a flat price top. This could prove important. The palm as mentioned, although up last night, is starting to build stocks. The domestic market is building some stocks again. These are important facts. Today may have been a blow off between the products. Tomorrows trade will be important and I will watch closely.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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