COMMENTARY: The beans and oil bounced a bit today. The condition ratings last night were unchanged in the soy. This was a bit of a surprise to me. I thought with the recent rains the ratings would be up. I want to shift focus to the macro process here. It is my thought that the Chinese are slowing purchases. The July Aug commitments are supportive of this fact. In addition the weather has improved vastly. This should and could in my opinion increase yield going forward. The point of this is that the carry at the end of AUG will be larger than anticipated. This while the SA crops are larger with more carry over. The last macro consideration in my opinion is the apparent Delta Covid Variant that is causing problems in China. This will slow the economic outlook in general, and may well have an impact on AG imports. The thought in my mind is that the risk to beans is the down side. This is my opinion and open for debate. As always quantify your risk. We await Thursday.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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