COMMENTARY: The soy is mixed today with the beans and bean oil down, while meal is bouncing. The crop condition report today should show some improvement in the bean yield given the recent moisture. As discussed previously, the bean yield in my opinion can show improvement this month if rains are timely. The month is off to a fair start. This week the USDA will of course release numbers on the 12th, Thursday. In my opinion these numbers will be important. As well as the current covid scenario in China. As well as the outlook for bean demand. In my opinion this is slowing. The July numbers to China are off year to year. The month of August is also predicted to be off. It is realistic to think the bean carry can grow. It also appears the South American production numbers are larger than the US has figured in at present. My point, I am cautious at best regarding this weeks numbers and am concerned we may see some global increases in supply. On a note of clarity. I talk about oil share in terms of percentages. It is my belief that the oil share would have traded to 50% of the crush. The oil share is not a predicter of the markets flat price movement. I had a recent question and I offer this as clarity.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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