COMMENTARY: The soy complex was under pressure. The recent rains have helped to show improvement overall. The conditions have shown increases this week for beans. This was not expected from the trade. Finally more rain is forecast over the next two weeks. As mentioned, it is my belief rains can increase yields through August. This would change the balance sheet if moisture is received. In addition to these facts, the bean exports globally for the past month are off approx 2.5 mmt. The expectation is for further reductions yr on yr this month. The Chinese demand is waning and taking pressure off global stock piles. The products are interesting here. I am not bullish meal but think perhaps the market is reaching a level of support. The bean oil is in an important position. It is possible the highs are in bean oil. If true, oil share may slowly start to decline. The palm price is now easing. This too will take pressure off bean oil. Especially if the price decline continues. As mentioned in previous writings, I believe the bean and oil spreads in new crop will work lower. The meal has moved to a carry market.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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