COMMENTARY: The soy had a two sided day today. The bean oil continues to rebound. The global vegoil market remains firm. It is my thought, given the bio demand, that bean oil will remain supported into late July. The meal market on the other hand remains a bit weak. This is consistent through the global market place. There are some reasons for this. The largest may be the fact that the Argentinian crush has really accelerated. This to meet the veg oil demand. This has put extra meal on the global market. This trend will continue unless there are some changes to the market. The recent strength in oil has the market challenging recent oil share highs at 48%. The current nearby market is at 46.7%. It has been my contention that the oil share could reach 50-52%. I still think this may be possible. There are some current concerns in Argentina that could disrupt the flow of products. The Parana river is extremely low at present. I am watching this closely. If the traffic is stopped due to low water, this would have a real impact on the markets. (I am not predicting this ) However, this bears watching closely. It is my thought that the flat price of beans may rebound a bit into the acreage report month end. The markets are experiencing large daily ranges. This has certainly increased risk. Exercise caution.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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