Soy Market Commentary

walshtrading General Commentary, Grains Leave a Comment


COMMENTARY: The markets had a very nice rebound. This was led by beans and oil share. I mentioned yesterday that the oil component may be beaten enough for the time being. There is so much to consider and think through this weekend. Happy Fathers day BTW for all of you out there. I would like to think about the market for a minute here in terms of relationships, rather than flat price. I do believe the markets can bounce a bit more. However, I think, unless there is a major weather problem, (which could happen), the highs may be in. There will be production growth into 2022. The reality at present as I perceive it, is that the vegoil market will remain supported. The beans will be sensitive to weather issues. The meal market is a bit over priced. There is a full supply of meal in the world. This includes the competitive meals. It seems to me that the oilshare can gain. This can be through a combination of one going up more, or both going down. It matters not. In my opinion oil will gain further on meal. This could certainly allow the oil spreads to bounce back. I am also watching new crop meal spreads for selling opportunities. (quantified). The aug beans at 1425 to me is a upside target. This would give a bit more upside to oil. The meal to a lesser extent. These would be opportunities to take advantage of in my opinion.

John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

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