COMMENTARY: The markets had a very nice rebound. This was led by beans and oil share. I mentioned yesterday that the oil component may be beaten enough for the time being. There is so much to consider and think through this weekend. Happy Fathers day BTW for all of you out there. I would like to think about the market for a minute here in terms of relationships, rather than flat price. I do believe the markets can bounce a bit more. However, I think, unless there is a major weather problem, (which could happen), the highs may be in. There will be production growth into 2022. The reality at present as I perceive it, is that the vegoil market will remain supported. The beans will be sensitive to weather issues. The meal market is a bit over priced. There is a full supply of meal in the world. This includes the competitive meals. It seems to me that the oilshare can gain. This can be through a combination of one going up more, or both going down. It matters not. In my opinion oil will gain further on meal. This could certainly allow the oil spreads to bounce back. I am also watching new crop meal spreads for selling opportunities. (quantified). The aug beans at 1425 to me is a upside target. This would give a bit more upside to oil. The meal to a lesser extent. These would be opportunities to take advantage of in my opinion.
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.