COMMENTARY: The soy complex in general has exhibited weakness. The USDA report took the edge off the market with the slight uptick in the carry over. In addition, the weather has moderated in some of the belt. The market seems to also be taking the posture that the critical period for beans is July August. This is true. It is also true that the US carry remains supportive while the global soy supply is ample. The next key piece to the puzzle will be acreage. It is my thought that the acreage may be understated and the acreage could show an increase. This, if true, would be a new negative fundamental (remains to be seen). It is my thought that we will have rallies of course but, given the current price structure they are opportunities to make sales. The meal is weak and it is my thought this will continue a bit longer. There is more than ample global supply. The bean oil has broken flat price and a high may be in place. The palm oil market is starting to build back stocks. The South American supplies are ample at cheaper prices. The oil share however is still approx 47%. The share may stay supported for a minute. I thought 50% was a possible scenario. This may still be a reality. As always quantify your risk.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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