Commentary:
SOY: The beans rallied again today. The weather apparently has some concerned that the crop size could decline. The ratings did decline today by 2 points. The Pro Farmer crop tour will begin to release estimates tonight apparently. This could be important as an indication of actually how large the crops are this year. Their doing actual field surveys with a specific pod count. This is old school and is a realistic look. The meal was again the leader which is adding to the recent strength in the crush margins. It is clear the weather will be key in the next couple weeks. It is my belief that the market may trade a bit higher. This rally is tech driven and in my opinion presents a hedging opportunity.
CORN: The corn market performed well yet again today. It is my opinion that the corn market has put a low in place. This could be important if realized. The recent weather events could show production losses. There are private estimates that range from 200 -1.2 bil bu. The 1.2 seems way out there, however perhaps 400-500 mil bu is not out of the question. This along with the longer term possibility of China needing feed grains may be a driver. The crop conditions declined 2% for corn today. Further declines could be expected now. The dec corn may attempt a close over 350. Quantify your risk
Trade Suggestion(s)
NA today
Risk/Reward
Futures-
Options –
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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