SOY
The beans rebounded today. The planting progress released yesterday afternoon may be the reason. The progress continues short of expectations. The current numbers are 12% planted. A gain from the previous week at 8%. This is well below the 5 year average at 24%. The weather next week will be important especially in the northern growing states. This is where most see a potential shift to beans. There also continue to be some rains in parts of Brazil which are causing some harvest concerns. Look for volatility given the time of season. Further delays to planting may mean more bean acres in the long run.
MEAL/OIL
The oil share rebounded again today. The May is approx 52%, while the July is at 50%. The palm oil market continues to ease as the stocks there are now building. There are continual concerns with sunoil and canola that may take a bit more time to build stocks and bring down prices. It does also appear the Malaysian Ag Ministry wants to cut the export tax. This is expected by June. Look for volatility. Here I am watching for a change in the historic oil share. This move has been significant.
CORN
The corn rebounded today due to yesterdays planting intentions. The pace is approx 22% planted through Sunday. Up from 14% the previous week. The five year average is 50%. This is significant in one sense. Private analysts after the first week of May start to draw down yield potential. This is where acreage will become important in the long run. Look for the market to pay close attention over the next two weeks. Especially as it relates to the acreage in the north regions. This could signal a shift away from Corn to Bean acres.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.