Commentary:
The soy today was led by the meal closing up 4.5 dollars per ton. This is supporting the crush margins at present. It is important to see where the overall soy numbers are going to fall. It is my thought that the domestic carry will be ample, and the global numbers will continue to expand. The near term fundamentals are supportive with the recent bout of poor weather. In addition, the Chinese purchases, as well as the thought Brazil may have a US buying package. This is possible and some beans will move, the amount remains to be seen. At the end of the day, the question remains, how many beans will China need? The focus, in my humble opinion, is related to the Chinese and their need for corn. This could potentially be a big number. The thought being thrown out is that they may need up to 50 mmt. If true, this would be a big number. It has been my contention that the corn did place a low at the 320 level. Going forward the domestic numbers will be watched very carefully to see if the USDA starts to show the declines the market expects. It is my thought that they will. This will be important and in my opinion show that the largest numbers of the year are in the rear view mirror.
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BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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