Soy & Corn Market Commentary

walshtradingGeneral Commentary, Grains


The beans came under heavy pressure today. The weather has shown improvement. In addition, it appears the Pro Farmer tour has confirmed a record or near record crop. The concerns are also present related to the Chinese demand going forward. The US does have a window at present for exports. However, the South American crops in general are looking at a larger planted area. The production estimates are significantly higher at present. If realized the carry could swell to the second highest on record. It seems that the market may have a limited upside if the weather remains moderate in the near term. Especially if the rains continue and harvest domestically eases any pressure from the tighter carry experienced last year. The products have seen the oil share decline significantly. The global veg oil fundamentals have changed. The Palm market went to a large surplus. This is still weighing as Palm is a discount to soy. The global rapeseed is replenished, as well as sun oil from the black sea. The point is the vegoil is ample at present. It has been my contention that the markets are entering a declining phase in the soy. Exercise caution.


The corn had a strong performance today. The fundamentals are tightening. The corn is probably done with a chance for improvement. Perhaps some test weight with moisture. The Pro Farmer tour indicates the USDA crop is well overstated. That is not to guarantee that the USDA will reduce the yield. However, it does appear early weather has had some affect and the crop could decline. This on top of the EU crop shrinking by a fairly reasonable amount. The global picture may be changing quite a bit. The corn can be supported to a bit higher. I suggested looking at July 23 vs Dec 23. This in my opinion still has upside. As always quantify your risk.


John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.​

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.​

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.