SOY
The beans are making a quick move higher. I indicated on Thursday last week, any changes in the weather could spark a quick move up. The weather looks hotter and dryer potentially next week. The market if it moves higher will now place the burden on the actual weather. It means it will need to actually get hot and dry next week to maintain the gains. In addition, the crop ratings declined yesterday a bit more than anticipated. This was a surprise but indicates the situation. It is my thought beans can have one more up day this week along with meal. Then I will reassess.
MEAL/OIL – The oil share again lost. The oil at approx 39.5% of the value. This has been a significant move down on a relative basis. This could be close to a bottom. However, the meal may have a bit more to gain given the South American situation. The Arg and Brazil are not selling. Brazil is sold out of beans, while ARG is holding due to the inflation. Let’s see what the week brings.
CORN
The corn like beans is rallying on the weather forecast. In addition, the crop condition declined yesterday. If some private analysts are correct the ratings decline could be as much as 2 bu to acre decline. This could put the carry at 1.250 billion. This would leave little room for further declines. The point today is the corn may have a bit more upside this week.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
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