SOY
The markets firmed today on expectations next week the carry over could decline yet again. The Argentinian crop has been under stress and is most likely in decline. This also has been supportive. The Brazilian weather has been beneficial of late and most private analysts are predicting an increase in production. The end result is the USDA could show a slight reduction in domestic carry, with the global numbers about unchanged. The question I have is if there is a surprise for any reason. I am not predicting this. However the market is leaning heavily long. The products are supported, the veg oil market globally remains strong for various reasons. The meal however seems to have some concerns in my opinion. The ASF in China seems to be expanding. There have been a reasonable amount of sows slaughtered. This could prove problematic in the medium term. The meal spreads july/dec are beginning to weaken. This could be a tell tale. Exercise caution into the report. If long play some defense.
CORN
The Corn like beans had a strong showing today. The market anticipates further reductions in the USDA report next week. This seems likely given the overall demand structure at present. The weather in Argentina remains supportive as well as the Brazilian Safrinha crop. I am watching the July Dec corn spread. If the markets remain supportive this spread may present opportunity.
Quantify your risk.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.