Commentary:
SOY (n) crush 61 cents , (n) oil share 36.6%
The markets rebounded today. The Brazilian harvest remains a bit behind schedule with harvest. This is the slowest pace in approx a decade. The market is finding some support with this. The other side of the coin is that the Brazilian crop appears to be larger than anticipated earlier. The firm AgRural is estimating a crop of 133 mmt up approx 1.3 mmt from last month. In addition the long term export line up appears to be a record. This goes to my thoughts that the Chinese demand will be placed with Brazil. As well as the fact that it is my opinion the demand from China will stagnate. There are real concerns over further issues in the swine sector. The vegoil market overall remains supported on global stocks. This, in my opinion, can last a bit longer. The soy has had a big move. Producers should look to lock up profit on further rallies.
CORN
The corn closed higher. The March May spread continues to move along. There were purchases from Japan over night which helped the market. In addition, the Brazilian Safrinha crop remains behind schedule. The optimal dates for planting may be gone. This would prove friendly for the US potentially. In addition, the Ethenol margins have improved of late. This could assist with a pick up in domestic demand. This while the UK is expanding the blending rate. The corn market is well supported but needs further bullish news for further gains in my opinion.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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