Commentary: There certainly is a lot to understand today. The market is awaiting some Chinese demand in the near term. This could spark a bit of a rally in the soy. Some long term questions remain. Will the Coronavirus change patterns long enough to cause a significant change in demand? My personal thought is that it has and is doing that. The fear of Coronavirus is not founded in reality, in my opinion, however the fear is here and it is effecting the way people are doing things. This is what needs to be taken seriously. The other aspect of the soy complex that is important is that the SA crops continue to expand. Recent private estimates now stand at Brazil 128 mmt, Argentina 55 mmt. The Argentinian has the additional imposed taxes to contend with, but the world has no shortage of beans. Nor will it for some time. The domestic meal basis would not indicate a need for $315 meal. The oilshare has lost 5% from its high of late. It would seem realistic this could be enough. The crush margins have rebounded as well. This to me is overdone. Given the rate of crush globally, the slowing demand, or more realistic the stagnation, I find a protracted up in any soy arena hard to conceive of.
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John J. Walsh
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