The beans saw a fairly volatile trade today. The meal had a significant gain relative to bean oil. The soy in general has had a large appreciation. The conditions tonight dropped 3%. This is significant. However, it should be noted that the average is still 2% below the current conditions. The main point of this is that the bean yield while not increasing, may not be declining as much as the market has dialed in. It is my thought that beans will not trade above $10.00 per bushel. This condition rating may well offer a higher open. It is my belief however that the weather may moderate and offer a sustaining forecast going forward. The market will now start to look at the southern hemisphere for some direction. It is reasonable to presume that the acreage and production can increase without a major weather threat. It is duly noted that weather is very important going forward. The soy however has an ample global supply and will in my opinion need a further weather issue to keep the rally going. Producers should look at this rally as an opportunity for hedges. As always quantify your risk.
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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