The markets have really put on a show over the last few months. The soy has been the leader in the AG’s. The carry remains very tight. The weather in south america remains an issue. The largest concern remains Argentina. The general thoughts are that the USDA will lower the soy carry yet again next week. The question regarding the beans is how much of that is baked in the cake, if at all. The next question is will the Chinese continue the buying that we have witnessed over the last months. I will refrain of making a guess until the numbers next week. The products both meal and oil have showed considerable appreciation as well. The meal mostly due to the Argentinian strike(s). This is important and has driven the meal to levels that will typically shut off feed demand. The long run may be subject to this. The current market is driven by fund money. The soy oil has rallied on the global veg oil tightness. It is my belief that this tight world scenario can continue into the first half of 2021. This is significant and could mean further gains price wise. On a general thought, given the significant moves, it seems possible the markets will pause until the report next week, and or new issues out of SA. However, given the recent rallies, nothing is certain. There remains an exceptional amount of risk. Exercise Caution.
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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